© Archyde.com. The annual report is expected to increase shares in February, and it is expected to win excess returns. The performance of individual stocks in the industry is booming
Financial Associated Press, Shanghai, January 29th (Editor Niu Long) Every year around the Spring Festival, the annual report pre-increase stock market is one of the main lines of the market, and companies with greatly increased performance are closely watched by institutions and funds. Near the end of January, the disclosure of annual report forecasts of listed companies is coming to an end. Up to now, over a thousand listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts and express reports. Calculated according to the lower limit of forecasted net profits, more than 20% of the companies that disclosed forecasts are expected to double their net profits.
The GF Securities Research Report stated that as of January 27, the disclosure rate of the 22 annual report performance forecast was 34%, which is somewhat representative. A-share non-financial annual report (forecast) net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 55.8% year-on-year, which was an improvement compared to 46.6% in 22Q3; profit growth rate was -29.6% month-on-month, which was also slightly higher than the seasonality since 2018. Structurally, the 22 annual report profits of midstream manufacturing and optional consumption have accelerated significantly year-on-year. Among them, the industries with a high annual report performance forecast disclosure rate and accelerated relative to the third quarter report are mainly concentrated in: high-end manufacturing (machinery equipment, national defense industry), new energy vehicles chain (electrical equipment, automobiles) and real estate completion chain (home appliances).
Lithium mining stocks are booming
Judging from the top 20 companies whose performance is expected to increase, 11 stocks including Cangzhou Dahua have an annual net profit increase of more than 10 times. Among the top 20 stocks expected to increase, most of them are track stocks, and many lithium mining stocks are on the list. Rongjie Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3121.58% to 3707.33%. According to calculations, the net profit in the single quarter of Q4 is 945 million to 1.345 billion yuan, an increase of 39% to 98% from the previous quarter, and is expected to hit a record high in a single quarter. The announcement shows that due to the continuous sharp rise in the prices of upstream material products in the lithium battery industry, the demand for lithium battery materials and lithium battery equipment continues to increase, and the revenue and profit of the company’s lithium concentrate, lithium salt, and lithium battery equipment have increased significantly.
Regarding the explosive performance of lithium mining companies, relevant industry insiders said that the era when the owner of lithium resources is king has arrived. Many lithium mining and lithium salt companies, including batteries, are vigorously extending the industrial chain, strengthening the chain, and supplementing the chain. At the same time, transnational cooperation, Even cross-border cooperation in the lithium battery industry has become a new normal in the development of the industry. Powerful companies are taking advantage of industrial scale and capital advantages to increase the number of links in the industrial chain in order to quickly grow bigger and stronger in the industry’s deterministic growth trend, especially deploying upstream lithium resources as soon as possible to seize opportunities and lock mines Grabbing mines has become the most secure and profitable operation in the era of ‘resources are king’.
However, in the past two months, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. According to data, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate on January 18 was 475,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92,500 yuan/ton from the price of 567,500 yuan/ton in November 2022, a drop of more than 16%. In this regard, most industry insiders said that following the pessimistic sentiment gradually dissipated, the price trend of lithium salt still depends on the market supply and demand pattern, and it will remain high and volatile in the short term.
The research report of Zheshang Securities stated that it is expected that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate will remain tight in the first half of 2023, and there may be a marginal oversupply in the second half of the year. In 2023, the global lithium resource end is expected to release 352,000 tons of new output. If the growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales in 2023 is 40%, the growth rate of the energy storage industry reaches 100%, and the growth rate of the small battery industry is 75%, then in 2023 From the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019, the supply and demand balances were -0.1, 0.4, 26, and 47,000 tons of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent, a negative number means that the supply exceeds demand, and a positive number means that the supply exceeds demand), and the marginal supply may exceed the demand in the second half of 2023. .
The top 20 stocks in the 2021 annual report forecast all outperformed the index in February
With the end of the pre-disclosure of the annual report at the end of January, the pre-increment of the annual report in February is still expected to become the focus of capital attention. Judging from the performance of individual stocks with pre-increased annual reports in 2021, the top 20 stocks with pre-increased net profit in annual reports all closed up in February 2022, and all of them outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index (3%). 10%, accounting for more than 60%. When the index performs well, individual stocks with performance forecasts may be expected to win excess returns.
