2024-02-14 14:49:12
The American bet on Israel providing protection for civilians in Rafah is “expensive”
American sources following the situation in the Middle East warned that the American bet on Israel’s ability to provide protection for civilians in the upcoming invasion of Rafah is “a very costly bet,” and “it places the Biden administration before challenges related to the credibility and reputation of the United States and its legal and moral responsibilities regarding what might happen.” Of massacres and humanitarian disasters for the Palestinians in Rafah.”
The US administration issued public warnings of the danger of an Israeli operation in the city of Rafah, but in the end it gave Israel the green light to carry out the operation, on the condition that no operation be carried out without clear plans to protect the Palestinians.
UN and international warnings were launched of a humanitarian catastrophe in Rafah, and doubts increased regarding Netanyahu’s promises to President Biden to develop plans to evacuate and protect more than a million people in Rafah, and some parties described them as “unrealistic.”
Biden spoke to reporters at the White House on Monday evening, alongside Jordanian King Abdullah II, stressing that a military operation should not be launched in Rafah without a reliable plan to ensure the safety of civilians. He explained that he had discussed with the Jordanian king an American proposal for a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. , which would bring a 6-week period of calm that would pave the way – according to Biden – to build something more sustainable. He confirmed that he spoke with Netanyahu and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar to push this matter forward.
Biden expressed his hope for a “two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and said that he discussed with King Abdullah reform of the Palestinian Authority, and building a state that accepts peace and does not harbor terrorist groups such as “Hamas” and “Islamic Jihad,” and they agreed to reject the forced displacement of Palestinians, The importance of delivering more humanitarian aid.
Jordanian concern
For his part, King Abdullah emphasized the plight of the Palestinians, and said: “We cannot stand idly by and let this matter continue. We need a permanent ceasefire, and this war must end.” He stressed that the potential threat of displacing Palestinians outside the borders of Gaza and the West Bank is “something we view with great concern and cannot be tolerated.”
The Jordanian monarch criticized the attacks by extremist settlers in the West Bank and the holy sites in Jerusalem and the expansion of illegal settlements, warning that this would unleash chaos in the entire region.
A Palestinian boy near a tent for displaced people in Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip (AFP)
The Jordanian King stressed that 7 decades of occupation, death and destruction leave no room for doubt that there cannot be peace without a political horizon, and that military and security solutions are ineffective. Speaking regarding starting immediately to create a political horizon that leads to a just and comprehensive peace, based on the two-state solution and the establishment of an independent, sovereign and viable Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, living side by side with Israel in peace and security.
King Abdullah II stressed to a number of US senators the necessity of moving towards a ceasefire in Gaza, calling for a greater international effort in this regard to end the war that led to a humanitarian catastrophe. He considered that the continuation of the war on Gaza undermines the chances of reviving the peace process, according to what was reported by the agency. Petra. King Abdullah renewed his rejection of any attempts that would displace the people of the Gaza Strip internally or externally, noting the need for the people of Gaza to return to their homes.
President Biden is counting on the capabilities of Director of Central Intelligence, William Burns, and his knowledge of the Middle East region, during his work in the US State Department and as ambassador to several countries in the region, to achieve a good breakthrough in the talks taking place (Tuesday) in Cairo, to secure the release of the hostages held in Gaza and to reach an agreement. To stop fighting.
Gilad Shir, a former advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and a fellow at the Middle East Peace Institute, says that a concrete plan to end the war and begin peace must be accelerated, because the current crisis with thousands of displaced and dead undermines confidence, and the region and the world cannot afford inaction. .
The Israeli invasion of Rafah and its disastrous results threaten US relations with the countries of the region, tear apart the alliances that supported US policies in the Middle East, and undermine the administration’s plans to conclude more peace agreements and make the Israeli presence in the region acceptable. Rather, the US administration may face challenges in maintaining the normalization agreements concluded decades and years ago, before things get out of control.
Internally, Biden is facing fierce positions from progressive members of his Democratic Party, due to his continued support for Israel amid the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza. He is also facing demonstrations and a decline in his popularity among the Arab and Muslim community.
Experts say that a ground invasion of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are crowded, represents “the most important strategic moment since the beginning of the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, between a team seeking to implement a military deterrence strategy and retaliatory strikes beyond borders, and a team that believes in peace and the two-state solution.” Therefore, the future of the Middle East region will be at stake depending on what may happen in Rafah.”
Displaced Palestinians in Rafah on Tuesday (AFP)
“The Biden administration should maintain diplomatic means as the best way to return the hostages and ensure no more human suffering,” says Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a liberal Israeli organization in Washington.
The American challenge with Egypt
The possibilities of suspending diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel will constitute a strong blow to the Biden administration and his legacy, and will show the American administration as weak and that the region is spiraling out of control under his administration. American presidents, since Jimmy Carter, have used the US-brokered peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979 as a cornerstone to push for greater stability in the Middle East.
The American relationship with Egypt is always described as a strategic relationship, and Egypt is an important ally of the United States. Long-term relations are based on political and military cooperation, and President Biden has repeatedly praised the mediation role played by Egypt with Qatar to reach a ceasefire agreement and the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Egypt made extensive efforts to facilitate the arrival of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Egyptian position was clear in refusing to undermine the Palestinian cause and rejecting Israeli plans to push the Palestinians into Egyptian territory, in forced displacement under intense military bombardment.
“It is unusual for Egypt to publicly indicate that it is rethinking the historic peace agreement it concluded with Israel, which means that Egypt is under great pressure,” says James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.
Threat to the American presence
Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip exposed the United States to intense attacks on its facilities and interests in the Middle East region, and one of the attacks led to the death of 3 soldiers in Jordan, prompting the United States to carry out retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria. There are fears that a humanitarian catastrophe in Rafah, and any obstruction of efforts to conclude a ceasefire deal led by the Director of US Intelligence with his counterparts in Egypt, Qatar and Israel, will lead to an increase in security threats to the American presence in the region.
The link between the attacks on American interests in the region and the Israeli retaliatory attacks once morest the residents of Gaza cannot be denied, according to observers, which is what should prompt President Joe Biden to prevent the outbreak of a broader war and to press strongly for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Otherwise, tensions will escalate. Regionalism will continue to spiral out of control.
A march in Union Square in New York City demanding that Israel stop the attack on Rafah (AFP)
Leaks reveal Biden’s frustration and anger at the Israeli Prime Minister’s intransigence, which is outside the approach of exercising influence behind closed doors. Therefore, failure to impose a ceasefire and conclude a deal to release the hostages will paint a very bleak picture regarding the erosion of Washington’s influence over Israel, and the failure to impose a ceasefire and conclude a deal to release the hostages. The Biden administration’s ability to bring regarding changes in Israeli behavior.
Netanyahu is certainly not concerned regarding the political consequences of opposing and challenging an American president who is believed to have less than a year left in office. Therefore, President Biden has a small opportunity to play a role that is politically, strategically, and morally consistent with the influence of the United States to achieve a real ceasefire in Gaza.
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