2024-02-02 09:23:54
6 hours ago
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Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan held the election of the 11th Legislative Yuan yesterday (February 1), and the candidates for president and deputy president, Han Kuo-yu and Jiang Qichen, nominated by the opposition party China’s Kuomintang, were successfully elected.
However, what the outside world is most concerned about is how former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu will return to Taiwan’s politics and win the position of President of the Legislative Yuan with the strong support of the Kuomintang. How will it affect the development of Taiwan’s political situation, and how will he deal with new President Lai Ching-te. More importantly, after Han Kuo-yu, who was seen as having a harmonious relationship with Beijing in the past, won the legislative seat, the future decisions of the KMT on cross-strait and even Taiwan defense policies will also be the focus.
Yasuhiro Matsuda, a professor at the University of Tokyo in Japan, commented to the Taiwanese media “Today” that in the past when Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party was in power, the ruling party also had less than half of the seats in the Legislative Yuan, which was less than the opposition Kuomintang. With the Legislative Yuan divided between one party and one party, the Kuomintang and its allies boycotted or blocked dozens of Taiwan defense-related bills. In addition, unlike the United States, the president of Taiwan cannot use his veto power on bills passed by Congress. Therefore, Yasuhiro Matsuda believes that the fate of relevant military policies and arms purchase orders launched by the Lai Ching-te government in the future will matter to Taiwan’s defense security.
Song Wendi, a global China hub researcher at the Atlantic Council, explained to BBC Chinese that for a long time, Beijing’s Taiwan policy has always focused on two levels: placing hope in “Taiwan authorities” or placing hope in “Taiwanese people.” Therefore, Han Kuo-yu returned to politics and won the position of President of the Legislative Yuan, establishing a pattern in which Taiwan’s administrative and legislative power is divided between the blue and green parties, “allowing Beijing to rekindle some hopes at the level of ‘looking to the Taiwan authorities’.”
Song Wendi believes that the Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing does not like, saw its vote share and Legislative Yuan seats decline in the election, making Beijing feel more responsive to its “hope for Taiwan voters.”
Why did China Central Television name Han Kuo-yu?
China’s state-run media CCTV commented a few days before Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan election that Han Kuo-yu firmly supports the “1992 Consensus” and is absolutely “not pro-American and hates China.” It called on the blue and white parties to discuss “big rights and wrongs.” Make the “right choice”.
After CCTV took action, relevant analyzes and Taiwanese public opinion also began to observe the future cross-strait policies of Han Kuo-yu and the Kuomintang, as well as whether the blue and white parties would contact Beijing in the future, and issues such as the geometry of the interaction model emerged one after another.
In response to this issue, Zhang Junhao, a professor at the Department of Political Science at Tunghai University, told the BBC reporter that specifically, the People’s Party led by Ko Wenzhe is bound to compete with the Kuomintang on cross-strait policies.
Professor Zhang explained that this is because the Kuomintang hopes to continue to poach supporters of the Kuomintang from cross-strait issues. Therefore, it is foreseeable that Ko Wenzhe and the Kuomintang will have some vertical and horizontal competitive relationships on this issue. For example, whether the “Services Trade Agreement” that both the blue and white parties came into contact with before the election will be restarted, or whether the existing “Anti-infiltration Law” will be revised is predicted to be the focus.
Analyzing the changes in cross-strait relations behind Han Kuo-yu’s victory with the “secret support” of the People’s Party, the Asia Times news network published an article on Mike Qi, former director of CNN’s Beijing office and current non-resident fellow at the US-China Institute at the University of Southern California. Chinoy and senior journalist Peter Enav jointly commented that the incoming Lai Ching-te lacks political strength, the Legislative Yuan is dominated by pro-China factions, and Taiwan’s defense and security will be even more fragile. Han Kuo-yu’s control of the Legislative Yuan will make it more difficult to strengthen Taiwan’s weak defense capabilities, and the pressure may increase, forcing the besieged Taiwanese to choose to reach a political compromise with Xi Jinping under the threat.
What will be Beijing’s next Taiwan strategy? Song Wendi analyzed to the BBC that since both the Taiwanese government and people have more room for hope, Beijing should be more strategically patient with Taiwan at the political level.
Han Guoyu returns to Taipei politics
Han Kuo-yu, who was once extremely popular in Taiwan, returned to the center of Taipei’s political arena after being dismissed as mayor of Kaohsiung. His every move has been the focus of public opinion.
On the first day when he returned to the Legislative Yuan, Han Kuo-yu held an umbrella and mocked himself as “a bald man holding an umbrella is lawless.” His “lawless” words once again shocked everyone in Taiwan’s legislative hall and occupied the pages of Taiwan’s major media that day.
Previously, Hanguo-yu also responded to criticism from the outside world that he was not serious about politics and was lazy when he was a legislator more than 20 years ago. Han Guoyu said, “Actually, I have admitted many times that I indulged in the past in the Legislative Yuan when I was young, but that was me 20 years ago, and I am different today.”
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Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu’s visit to the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government during his 2019 trip to Hong Kong and Macau caused controversy.
Zhang Junhao said that Mr. Han has made strong and sometimes controversial statements and actions in the past, and this political style has received polarizing reviews in Taiwan’s political circles. But now Han Kuo-yu, as the head of Taiwan’s highest public opinion organ, is required by law to remain neutral in the parliament, and at the same time, he also has to receive visiting delegations from foreign dignitaries and think tanks. “The Kuomintang vowed to reform after the election and hopes to find young voters. Can the Korean style be adjusted accordingly? I think the challenge of the Kuomintang has just begun.”
After Han Kuo-yu won, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen posted a message on Facebook to congratulate Han Kuo-yu and Jiang Qichen. Tsai Ing-wen said that she hopes that the new Congress in the future can cross party lines and promote various bills and budgets that are beneficial to the country and the people through good communication and rational supervision.
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