In the wake of a significant weather event that brought widespread rain to California over the past week — tragically resulting in at least one confirmed death — meteorological experts are optimistic for a drier Thanksgiving.
This week, an atmospheric river storm unleashed record-breaking rainfall across Northern California, with the severity diminishing as it moved southward along the coast into Southern California. Weather officials anticipate light rain to begin across the region on Monday and continue into Tuesday.
“Our biggest concern for this week is people traveling for Thanksgiving,” stated Dylan Flynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “If you’re leaving on Wednesday, you’ll have better odds of staying dry.”
Another system is predicted to sweep through on Monday, with a focus on the Central Coast area, potentially depositing 1 to 3 inches of rain. Flynn noted this volume of precipitation would imitate the rainfall the region experienced in just a six-hour span during the recent atmospheric river, stretched over a period of two days.
“Spreading that out is going to make it much less impactful,” Flynn emphasized. “Overall this is kind of a more typical winter event compared to what we just went through.”
Flynn indicated that actual Thanksgiving Day and the preceding Wednesday “looks like we’re going to be drying up.”
Referring to the atmospheric river’s effects on Northern California this week, Flynn described it as “unprecedented,” highlighting that Santa Rosa experienced a staggering 12.47 inches of rain over a three-day period—a level of rainfall never recorded in over 120 years of weather monitoring.
“Statistical analysis shows that that amount of rain in downtown Santa Rosa is only really expected to happen once every thousand years,” he remarked. “It was extremely unprecedented, we’ve never seen it before, and we don’t expect to see it very often at all.”
Flynn elaborated that the atmospheric river was stationary for a couple of days, drenching the North Bay with moderate rain for 48 consecutive hours, before finally shifting southward and impacting the wider Bay Area. The eventual southward movement triggered a flash flood warning in San Francisco, which Flynn noted is “pretty rare.”
Weather officials also observed early flooding occurrences of the Russian River, near Guerneville, a phenomenon typically reserved for late winter months, particularly in February.
Authorities confirmed at least one fatality: a driver whose vehicle was found submerged in floodwaters. The Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office reported that at approximately 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, a passerby alerted officials to a car partially submerged near Mays Canyon Road and Highway 116. Unfortunately, rescue efforts revealed the man was already deceased upon retrieval from the vehicle.
According to Flynn, while all major rivers are currently below flood stage, a couple of creeks still exhibit minor flooding.
“The big story is what happened last week and just recovering from that,” he summarized.
In the Los Angeles area on Saturday, rainfall totals mostly remained under one-tenth of an inch, though select mountain regions received around a quarter of an inch according to Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Wofford mentioned that the next anticipated rainfall in the L.A. and Ventura areas is more likely to occur late Monday into Tuesday, with precipitation generally expected to remain under half an inch. Temperatures are forecasted to fluctuate between the low to high 60s, accompanied by predominantly cloudy skies.
“A little bit of light rain at times, but for us it’s going to be — not normal since most of us just expect it to be sunny and 72 every day — it’ll be different than that, but not be that impactful,” Wofford noted. As one approaches Long Beach and extends down towards Orange County, rainfall amounts are expected to taper off, likely bringing less than a quarter-inch of additional moisture, he added.
The rain is expected to cease after Tuesday, although there remains a possibility for precipitation to return next weekend.
**How does the National Weather Service communicate with the public during extreme weather events to ensure safety?**
**Interview with Dylan Flynn, Meteorologist at the National Weather Service**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dylan. Recent weather events have significantly impacted California, particularly with the atmospheric river that brought record-breaking rainfall to Northern California. Can you elaborate on what we’ve seen over the past week?
**Flynn:** Absolutely. The atmospheric river was indeed unprecedented; areas like Santa Rosa recorded an incredible 12.47 inches of rain over just three days. That kind of rainfall has only a statistical likelihood of occurring once every thousand years in that region. The storm was stationary for 48 hours, which caused extensive flooding, particularly in the North Bay and eventually led to flash flood warnings in San Francisco — something that’s quite rare.
**Editor:** That’s alarming. Tragically, this severe weather resulted in a confirmed death. How are meteorologists responding to the needs of the public after such an event?
**Flynn:** Our main focus has been on public safety, especially with many people traveling for Thanksgiving. Our forecast indicates that light rain will begin again on Monday and last into Tuesday, but we’re optimistic that Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day will see dry conditions. We’re advising travelers to plan their departures for Wednesday for the best chances of avoiding rain.
**Editor:** Can you explain the anticipated impact of the new system moving in on Monday?
**Flynn:** The expected rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Central Coast is concerning but should be less impactful compared to the atmospheric river we just experienced. The new rainfall will be spread out over two days, which is much better than the concentrated downpour we faced recently. This makes it a more typical winter event rather than an extreme scenario.
**Editor:** Given the severity of the recent storm, how should residents prepare for the potential for more rain this week?
**Flynn:** We advise residents to stay informed through local weather updates. While we expect some rain, the upcoming system shouldn’t have the catastrophic effects we saw last week. However, maintaining vigilance—especially regarding potential flooding in traditionally flood-prone areas like the Russian River—is essential as this is quite unusual for this time of year.
**Editor:** It sounds like the weather will be improving just in time for Thanksgiving. Is there anything else you’d like to add?
**Flynn:** Just a reminder to travelers: safety first! Monitor forecasts, be prepared for changing conditions, and if you’re leaving later in the week, you have a much better chance of enjoying a drier holiday. If anyone has questions about local weather conditions, they should reach out to the National Weather Service or check our website for updates.
**Editor:** Thank you for your insights, Dylan. We appreciate your guidance as we move into the holiday week!
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