Crude oil prices have stood above 100 US dollars a barrel following the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Crude oil prices have stood above 100 US dollars a barrel following the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Thai Oil expects West Texas crude oil prices to move at a range of 114-119 dollars per barrel this week.
Brent crude oil moved in the $117-122 range.
Trend of crude oil price situation (7 -11 Mar. 65)
Crude oil prices have soared above $110 a barrel, their highest in seven years, and are expected to stay above $100. per barrel In the followingmath of clashes between Russia and Ukraine that are unlikely to be settled due to unsuccessful negotiations on March 1 And Russia continues to have plans to invade Ukraine. while the international level of sanctions once morest Russia to pressure Russia to cancel and withdraw its troops from Ukraine Including concerns regarding the volume of Russian crude exports that may disappear if sanctions are imposed on the Russian energy business. Recently, many major energy companies Announcement to withdraw investment in oil and natural gas production last week
The main factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week:
– The situation of armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine following a week is not likely to end. The Russians continued to invade Ukraine. which can seize Kherson, a major port city in southern Ukraine, succeeded March 2 and continued to escalate the attack. However, Russia and Ukraine expressed their intention to enter a new round of negotiations to end the war. After the first round of negotiations on March 1 was unsuccessful.
– Many countries increase sanctions on Russia It focuses on financial transactions and the Russian banking network. excluding energy related transactions Over the past week (February 28 – March 3), the United States, Canada, Britain, and the European Union cut more than seven Russian banks from Swift, the international payment system. used by financial institutions around the world to isolate Russia from the global financial system. and to have a direct impact on the Russian economy and finances The exclusion of the Swift system has swayed its Russian counterparts. Decide to avoid financial transactions, including trading in commodities, crude oil and natural gas. with Russia to avoid payment difficulties. and the risk of not receiving the goods if the situation is more severe Markets are concerned that Russian crude exports may decline, although several national sanctions once morest Russia remain unclear on crude and natural gas trading. Russia’s crude oil exports currently account for regarding 5-6% of the world’s crude oil supply, or regarding 4-5 million barrels per day.
– Several crude oil and gas drilling companies withdraw their operations in Russia. BP announced it would withdraw its 19.75 stake in Russian oil company Rosneft. Shell announced it would end its partnership with Gazprom, and Equinor and Exxon have also announced that it will terminate its Russian business and investment. by withdrawing such business It might affect Russian crude oil production. This is because foreign private companies have regarding 9% of Russia’s crude oil production capacity.
– The crude oil market is likely to continue to tighten. After the meeting of crude oil exporting countries and allied nations Or the OPEC Plus group on March 2 maintains its original resolution to increase production at 400,000 barrels per day in April, rejecting US claims. to increase production capacity to reduce the level of crude oil price problems
– The market is watching that the US and allied nations in the group Will the International Energy Agency (IEA) consider releasing more crude from its Strategic Oil Stockpile (SPR)? After the latest agreements were reached to release 60 million barrels of crude oil in March-April to compensate for the oil supply that may be affected by tensions between Russia and Ukraine. and reduce the heat of oil prices
– Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) said the impact of the conflict in Ukraine is still very uncertain. It is too early to assess, however, the Fed expects this time to be a good time to raise policy rates at its meeting in late March amid rising inflation. and a strong labor market The Fed signaled a rate hike of just 0.25%, lower than investors’ expectations.
– The economy to watch this week is the Eurozone GDP in 4Q21, likely to be stable from the previous quarter. China’s consumer index for Feb. 65 tends to decline compared to the previous month. European Central Bank Monetary Policy Statement
Summary of the oil price situation last week (28 Feb. – 4 Mar. 65)
West Texas Intermediate crude rose $24.09 to $115.68 a barrel, while Brent crude rose $20.18 to $118.11 a barrel. Dubai crude oil averaged $108.95 a barrel following market concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The crude oil production capacity of the OPEC Plus group continues to increase limitedly. As a result, crude oil supply is at a tight level.
