2024-01-18 02:22:16
Thai stocks today, 18 Jan. Analysts expect to swing sideways down. Get bond yields to rise. The dollar strengthens and the baht weakens. After US retail sales came out strong Investors expect that the Fed has not yet cut interest rates at its March meeting.
Mr. Apichart Phubanjerdkul, CISA Senior Director Strategic Analysis Division, TISCO Securities said Thai stock market this morning Expect a sideways down swing. and is weaker than other stock markets in Asia that are mixed together or moving in both positive and negative territory
In response to the US government bond yield (bond yield) increasing and the dollar strengthening. while the value of the baht depreciated After the United States reported retail sales figures Came out stronger than expected
This makes investors expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates at its March meeting. The latest CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that investors give 55% weight to the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% to 5.00-5.25%, from previously giving more than 60% weight.
Meanwhile, in the country there has not been any new supporting factor. It is recommended to follow the gradual announcement of commercial banks’ operating results.
Keep the support level at 1,370-1,360 points and the resistance level at 1,390-1,400 points.
Innovation Exchange Securities Indicates that SET’s overall technical signal is still negative. Including the negative factor of uncertainty regarding the timing of the Fed’s interest rate cut. Most recently, US retail figures for December were higher than expected.
Price trend The recovery is still limited to the resistance levels of 1,390 and 1,402 points, respectively, and can still be adjusted down. The next support levels are at 1,370 and 1,360 points, respectively.
In the short term, the Thai stock market will be pressured by external factors. Both Chinese economic figures (GDP 4Q23) are still not bright. Including uncertainty regarding the Fed’s interest rate cut.
However, positive expectations of Chinese economic stimulus measures are expected to help alleviate some of the pressure. Under the country that still lacks new supporting factors Therefore, the investment strategy recommends “Selective Buy”.
Krungsri Securities estimate SET weakens support level 1,370 – 1,375 points. It is expected that the FED will maintain high interest rates for a long time following US retail figures for December were higher than expected by + 5.6% YoY, resulting in US bond yield and the USD value rising.
In addition, China’s Q4/2023 GDP figures expanded less than expected, putting pressure on fund flow and investment conditions. Therefore, we recommend selective buying as before.
Investment strategy: Selvectie buy
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