Elon Musk, boss of the electric vehicle specialist, has been dropping snippets since April about the presentation that he had announced for August 8, but which was postponed to October 10. I “requested what I think is a major design change at the front and the extra time allows us to unveil a few other little things,” he explained in mid-July. On September 25, he revealed the title of the event: “We, Robot”, in reference to the science fiction work “I, Robot” by Isaac Asimov, released in bookstores in 1950 and adapted for cinema in 2004. A photo accompanies this post, showing what appears to be a camera lens, mentioning the date Thursday and Los Angeles, and a comment: “This is going to go down in the history books.” »
Cybercab. The rest is just rumors and speculation. Even the site of the presentation: the Warner studios in Los Angeles, which would allow demonstrations in the cardboard streets of the cinema sets. Observers saw Tesla trucks there and took photos of a vehicle wrapped in bright yellow covering, seen as camouflage for the robotaxi. The vehicle, which would be called Cybercab, would for some be inspired by the silhouette of Tesla’s Model 3 sedan, released in 2017, but, for others, by the Cybertruck pick-up, deliveries of which began at the end of 2023 after several years late. For still others, it would be a marriage of the two.
But there is still a long way to go before you can hail a Cybercab. “We believe that the deployment of Tesla’s robotaxi on a large scale is unlikely in the coming years,” note UBS analysts. “Elon Musk has a long history of exaggerating the availability of various Tesla products on the market – and we think the robotaxi will be no different,” commented Garrett Nelson of CFRA Research.
Wedbush analysts expect “Musk & Co to unveil ‘revolutionary’ autonomous technologies” on Thursday, noting that very few company presentations are as anticipated as this one. So much so that the very volatile Tesla stock has soared (+48.1% in six months) at the risk of collapsing in the face of probable disappointment, noted Mr. Nelson.
Competitors. However, robotaxis have already been traveling, with customers on board, several cities in the United States since 2021 thanks to Waymo from Google (Alphabet) and Cruise from the automobile giant General Motors (GM). Waymo has more than 700 robotaxis – white Jaguars – including 300 in San Francisco where they are now accessible to the general public and no longer just to testers and developers.
Every week, 100,000 paid trips – for up to four passengers – are made with Waymo, also present in Phoenix (Arizona), Austin (Texas) – lands of Tesla – in Los Angeles and, soon, in Atlanta (Georgia). With cars as readily available as those from Uber and Lyft, and prices comparable, they have become part of many locals’ daily lives and a tourist attraction in their own right. In China, robotaxis are reaching more and more cities and are deliberately much cheaper than traditional taxis.
For GM, the road is bumpier. Cruise activities were suspended in October 2023 after several vehicles were involved in accidents. Cruise then traveled through downtown Phoenix, San Francisco, Houston and Austin. She resumed five months later in Phoenix, with drivers on board. Packed with cameras and lidars (detection lasers), robotaxis are sparking intense debates on the advances and risks they represent. “Autopilot”, Tesla’s driving assistance system, has also been implicated in fatal accidents.
Other announcements. In addition to the robotaxi, experts expect Elon Musk to make announcements concerning other projects such as the low-cost electric car Model 2 – around $25,000, expected in 2025 –, his humanoid robot Optimus – expected on the market in 2026 –, or even its Semi semi-trailer, its roadster and perhaps even a Cybervan, a version of the robotaxi for around ten people.
For Wedbush, Tesla will present “a cutting-edge technology intended to revolutionize urban transportation”, thanks to the artificial intelligence/fully autonomous driving (FSD) duo which represent $1,000 billion in valuation alone for Tesla.
Robyn BECK with Elodie MAZEIN in New York
