The Arab countries are immersed in a spiral of economic crises and political instability as a result, according to Hisham A. Hellyer, of pending issues in the decolonization processes. Hellyer is an academic and analyst of the Arab world, a member of the think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Royal United Services Institute, and a professor at the University of Cambridge. He recently gave a lecture on the “cold war” dynamics in the region at the European Institute of the Mediterranean of Barcelona (IEMed) and in this interview he speaks with EL PERIÓDICO regarding these conflicts, as well as regarding the countries in the area with Israel and the West.
Last year marked the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring. What remains today of those revolutions?
The Arab revolutions were inevitable and the result of unfinished business from the colonial and post-colonial era. These populations were colonized, they were exploited, and then their colonizers were forced to leave. The structures left behind by the colonizers were taken over by post-colonial leaders but continued to be non-representative, anti-democratic systems of government that did not allow these populations to become empowered or at least feel that they have pathways to empowerment. I am English and I can say that many of us in the UK feel disempowered as a result of the political climate, but no one imagines that it is impossible to make changes. But I think that these revolutions have left the feeling of an unfinished job. People remember that it was possible for the change to happen. They also remind you of the enormous cost one may have to bear to bring regarding such a change. Many people decided that this was not the time to pay that price because it might be too high to frankly not get much in the short term, but certain barriers were broken in this regard. And although the underlying problems remain, 10 years are not enough to assess the result. This is not over.
Do you think that the pandemic has damaged or interrupted the path to democracy in these countries?
I don’t know if I would say that it has damaged it, since it is obvious that during the pandemic people focus on other things, but it has put another stress on the system. Although damaging implies that if the pandemic had not taken place, perhaps things would be much better and I am not sure regarding this. I think the pandemic has just been a holding pattern.
You believe that there are two poles in the geopolitical “cold wars” of the Arab world. What are these poles?
In the last three decades there has been talk of Saudis versus Iranians, or Sunnis versus Shiites, but I think the issue is much more complex. In my opinion there are two much larger poles: one of them is made up of Saudis, Emiratis and Egyptians, and the other pole is made up of Turkey, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood networks. And although they say that they are competing for different views on the revolutions or on the weight of religion, in reality they seek to expand their influence in the region. They have supported or not the revolts depending on whether they fit their interests.
Could there be an escalation of tension in the coming years between these two poles?
-No, on the contrary. I think we are seeing a lot of de-escalation. The Turks are having more relations with the Emiratis and the Saudis. The Egyptians are also trying to relate more to the Turks,… although the pulse exists.
Has the normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Israel changed anything in the region?
In my opinion, the Arab world has not normalized relations with Israel. There are 22 countries in the region, of which two or three have partially normalized their relations, with the exception of the Emiratis who seek full normalization. But these represent a very small percentage of the Arab world. On the other hand, there may be normalization of government relations, but that does not mean that relations are normalized, because normality is between people. And this will not happen, in my opinion, until there is a just resolution of the Palestinian question.
Will Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House help find a solution?
No, I think that the political leaders of the West are not keen enough to find a just solution. Neither do the Israelis. And they are fully aware of it. However, as a partner of think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, I have watched how discussions of the Palestinian issue in the US have changed in recent years. Now it is more common to hear nuances and much more emphasis on the simple reality that Palestinians are human beings. This did not happen before. The discussion is changing. But I don’t think that this means that things will change in terms of policies during the Biden Administration and probably not in the next White House, but it might be in the next one or the other. These are trends that I think are very clear.
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What role should the US and the EU play in the democratization of the Arab countries?
I think they should focus on minimizing damage. It is more realistic. I would like them to do more in terms of strengthening, not in an imperialist sense, but by reminding these countries that they have signed international treaties that prevent them from doing certain things to their own people. But I do not see this, I do not see a real interest in sufficiently defending fundamental freedoms and rights, but rather they are focused on defining their commercial interests in a very precise way. I’m sorry to be so cynical, but I think that if there is going to be a change it is not going to be as a result of outside forces. But we are not doing a good job in Europe with our own European partners to ensure that we all adhere to certain treaties or conventions. . I see the downward spiral of a country like Hungary or the drift to the right of people like Emmanuel Macron in France. I have no expectations that the West will do a good job in international relations.
