2024-07-02 04:08:28
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Is it possible to negotiate an end to the war this year? Russia Contra Ukraine? even before the election America president November, is there still Russian involvement?
Ukraine is currently working toward the goal of another peace conference within months. Western media have increasingly mentioned Saudi Arabia as a possible location.
Ukrainian President Zelensky wants to maintain the pace of his diplomatic offensive and therefore announced “new concrete measures” for July. Apparently, these are working groups for the Ukraine peace plan.
Diplomacy keeps conversations uninterrupted
The first high-level meeting was held in Switzerland in mid-June. They participated in various 80 countries. Russia She was not invited and China did not attend.
The debate was limited to issues such as free trade routes, nuclear security and prisoner exchanges. The diplomatic door is also open for future Russian involvement.
According to the final declaration, peace in Ukraine requires “the participation and dialogue of all parties”. As the war enters its third year, is there still a chance for real peace talks?
Deutsche Welle interviewed two important representatives of the German diplomatic community: Rüdiger von Fritsch, the former ambassador to Moscow and the former deputy director of the German Federal Intelligence Service.Bundeswehr),y Christoph HeusgenChairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) and former adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Von Fritsch: “Putin has no interest in ending the war”
The two diplomats gave little hope of quick talks with Russia. And, even before the Swiss meeting, when Russian President Vladimir Putin presented his vision for a ceasefire, he clearly showed the opposite attitude.
Putin said the guns would be silenced if Ukrainian troops withdrew from the four southern and eastern regions annexed by Russia in 2022 and if Ukraine gave up joining NATO.
Former ambassador Rüdiger von Fritsch believes that Putin “has no current interest in ending the war if his aggression is ultimately rewarded”.
Christoph Heusgen, head of the MSC, said that in terms of content, Putin’s proposal was “not serious at all.” The Russian president was more interested in hampering the work of the Swiss conference and waiting for a reaction.
Heusgen: “Ukraine needs to become a member of NATO”
Against this backdrop, both diplomats doubted that negotiations might proceed quickly. First, “Putin must recognize Ukraine’s legitimate government and President Zelensky as an interlocutor.”
But we haven’t reached that point yet. In late May, the Russian president questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy as an automatic extension of his regular term under Ukrainian law officially ended.
In addition, Heusgen said that Russia should respect the United Nations Charter. This was mentioned in the final communiqué of the Swiss conference. “The only possibility of peace is if Ukraine once once more gains the upper hand in this conflict,” Heusgen said. He did not believe that “this autumn we will have a conference with the participation of Russia.”
Crackdown: In September 2022, a woman was arrested during a protest in Moscow once morest partial mobilization.
Von Fritsch: Putin fears uprising
Heusgen said he said what many Westerners didn’t want to hear: If a deal is reached with Russia, Ukraine will need stronger security than before.
“I think that an agreement with Russia would be tolerable for Ukraine only if it joins NATO,” Heusgen said. Ukraine has been guaranteed to join NATO since 2008 but does not qualify as a candidate. status.
Rudiger von Fritsch also did not believe in the quick success of diplomacy. The former ambassador to Moscow believes that Putin will only be willing to engage in substantive negotiations if his power in Russia is threatened.
“Vladimir Putin must constantly win the approval of the Russian people; he rules his country through constant repression, propaganda and bribery,” von Fritsch said.
He said it was not just the Russian economy that was under pressure. The Kremlin also worries regarding “black swans” – unexpected events that might threaten its power, such as an uprising.
“Putin is scared of this,” the former German ambassador said. “You have to do that. When you get to that point, you’re ready to talk.” The way to achieve that, he believes, is to strengthen Ukraine and impose more sanctions on Russia.
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