2024-01-13 10:30:57
The elections on the self-governed island, which China considers part of its territory, will feature three candidates who will seek to succeed the current president, Tsai Ing-wen.
One of the favorites is Lai Ching-te, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), who will face Hou Yu-ih, of the Kuomintang (KMT); and Ko Wen-je, from the People’s Party of Taiwan (PPT).
All have concluded their campaigns under the watchful eye of China, an Asian giant that claims Taiwan as part of its territory. For its part, the United States is the island’s main weapons supplier.
And although Washington has reiterated that it does not support Taiwanese “independence,” it has classified those carried out by China in the Strait and in the South Sea as “provocative actions.”
The truth is that Taiwan is one of the main points of friction between the two superpowers. Although the US has sought to calm tensions, last May Joe Biden issued a strong warning to China if it tries to annex Taiwan “by force.”
“The United States has committed to supporting the ‘one China’ position, but that does not mean that China has the jurisdiction to use force to take Taiwan,” the American president mentioned during a visit to Japan.
The Ministry of National Defense (MDN) of Taiwan, meanwhile, notified last Thursday of the presence of fifteen Chinese warplanes in the vicinity of the island as well as four ships and three balloons.
Pedro Iacobelli, director of the History Institute of the University of the Andes, told BioBioChile: “the surveys actually give the DPP an advantage and apparently the unknown is how big the margin of his victory will be.”
“The Sunflower student movement of 2014 marked a break between the youth and the then ruling KMT party. At the same time, the KMT campaign constantly appeals to the fear of war (“choose peace or war,” declared the opposition candidate), which is why it is not in tune with the concerns of developing a more prosperous and independent Taiwan, which is what who are looking for educated and young groups,” he added.
Experts suggest that the years of tension and pressure from Pkeín might be extended for four more years in the face of a new victory for the ruling party.
In that sense, Iacobelli agrees. “The DPP defends the sovereignty of Taiwan. China, for its part, demands compliance with the one-China policy. The antagonism is accentuated to the extent that China wants to accelerate the imposition of its policy in Taiwan,” he maintains.
Despite the fear that there is a result that eventually leads to a major confrontation between the United States and China, the specialist chooses to put cold feet, indicating that he sees it as “unlikely.”
“The United States has a very important military agreement with Taiwan, in addition to having its fleet deployed in East Asia,” he pointed out.
“At the same time, the United States’ alliance with Australia and New Zealand is motivated by China’s expansion. That is, a hypothetical advance by China on Taiwan would be strongly responded to by Taiwan itself and its regional allies,” he stated.
This is a scenario, the academic explained, that all parties want to avoid. On the other hand, he adds, the economic cost of a war would affect the global economy, including the Chinese and North American economies, being another scenario that they want to avoid.
It is worth remembering that Chinese President Xi Jinping has insisted that “reunification is inevitable,” referring to Taiwan. “The Chinese desire is defined in an official policy of the Chinese state. That doesn’t seem likely to change in the medium term,” says Iacobelli.
“But unlike the case of Hong Kong, where the territory did not have complete independence and autonomy, which allowed China to bypass the 1997 agreements to – de facto – accelerate reunification, Taiwan has a robust democracy without the tutelage of Beijing and military alliances with Western powers,” he mentioned.
“The desire will continue among the Chinese officials, but the Taiwanese people have the floor,” he concluded.
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