The US Supreme Court dealt a significant blow to the Trump administration last week by ruling that the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, implemented in April 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were unlawful. This ruling has major implications for U.S. Trade policy, including potential financial repercussions amounting to $175 billion or more in tariff refunds.
More than 1,400 companies, including major players like FedEx, Costco, Goodyear, and L’Oréal, have filed protective claims with the Court of International Trade (CIT) in response to this ruling. The complexity of unwinding this trade policy shift raises questions about the next steps for these companies and their financiers as they navigate the aftermath of the court’s decision.
Understanding the Refund Process
While the Supreme Court’s ruling has invalidated the tariffs, it has not clarified the refund process. The case has been referred back to the CIT, which must determine whether it has the authority to issue a nationwide injunction for refunds to all importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs or just those who filed protective actions.
As Greg Husisian, a trade attorney, notes, over 2,000 claims have already been filed, and this number is expected to rise sharply. A significant concern is whether refunds can be issued for entries that have already been liquidated, meaning the duties are considered final.
the eligibility for refunds is linked to the ‘importer of record’ status, raising concerns for distributors and other partners in the supply chain who absorbed the costs of tariffs but might be excluded from refunds unless they have contractual protections. This situation opens up complex issues regarding risk allocation among importers, suppliers, and buyers, as well as potential insurance claims for wrongful tariff costs.
Financial Implications for Companies
From a financial perspective, the ruling poses questions about its impact on corporate cash flow and credit needs. Michael Stitt, head of trade and working capital sales origination at US Bank, indicated that it is still early in the process, and he does not foresee a significant impact on how clients finance working capital or adjust their pricing strategies.
Stitt pointed out that generally, he has not observed considerable pressure on credit capacity or pricing as a result of elevated tariffs. He suggested that if the U.S. Administration is limited in its ability to set tariff policy unilaterally, pressures may ease. Importers that previously considered tariffs in their inventory costs may see changes in their borrowing bases, which could shrink if those costs are no longer present.
refunds will be issued only to U.S. Importers, not to exporters or consumers who faced higher prices due to the tariffs. Some sectors, particularly those that paid maximum duties on machinery, electrical appliances, and garments, may benefit more from potential refunds.
What Lies Ahead?
As significant as the Supreme Court ruling is, further litigation seems likely. Husisian believes that the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will continue collecting all IEEPA tariffs until they are replaced by recent tariffs, as announced by President Trump. The customs agency is expected to retain previously collected tariffs while the CIT decides the refund process.
Refunds for IEEPA tariffs will only occur following a final, unappealable ruling, which could involve additional legal proceedings, potentially extending the timeline for resolution. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled a shift to other tools to sustain its tariff policy, including a proposed 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This approach may face challenges, as it is not typically used for trade deficits.
As the government focuses on safeguarding trade agreements with countries like the UK and Japan, concerns about the stability of U.S. Trade policy are growing. Experts indicate that trade partners are increasingly wary, citing a lack of legal certainty regarding how U.S. Trade policies will evolve.
John Ferguson, head of the Future of Trade initiative, emphasized that while this ruling represents a significant victory for the global trading system, it does not eliminate tariff uncertainty. Companies must still prepare for a volatile trading environment, balancing strategies for U.S. Policy fluctuations with those in more stable markets.
The next confirmed checkpoint will be how the CIT handles the refund process and the timeline for any payouts. As companies await clarity, discussions about the broader implications of these tariffs on supply chains and pricing strategies will continue.
As the situation develops, companies and stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed and engaged with ongoing developments in U.S. Trade policy.