Yemen’s Shifting Sands: How Al-Zubaidi’s Flight Signals a New Era of Regional Power Plays

The clandestine escape of Eidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC), aboard a vessel to Somaliland and then a flight skirting identification protocols to Abu Dhabi, isn’t merely a story of a failed peace negotiation. It’s a stark illustration of how the geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula is being redrawn, with implications that extend far beyond Yemen’s borders. This incident, occurring in January 2026, highlights a growing trend: the increasing willingness of regional actors to operate outside established diplomatic channels, leveraging alternative routes and alliances to secure their interests.

The Anatomy of an Escape and a Fractured Alliance

The Saudi-led coalition’s announcement that al-Zubaidi “escaped in the dead of night” speaks volumes. The deliberate circumvention of standard flight protocols – turning off transponders over the Gulf of Oman – suggests a level of coordination and pre-planning that implicates actors beyond the STC itself. This wasn’t a spontaneous decision; it was a calculated move, likely facilitated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE’s silence following the coalition’s statement is telling.

The roots of this fracture lie in the competing visions for Yemen’s future. Saudi Arabia supports the internationally recognized government, while the UAE has historically backed the STC’s separatist ambitions. The December offensive launched by the STC, seizing control of key southern provinces, was a direct challenge to Saudi influence and a clear signal of Abu Dhabi’s continued support for southern independence. The subsequent Saudi response – airstrikes and backing for the Yemeni government’s counter-offensive – demonstrated Riyadh’s determination to maintain its regional dominance.

Somaliland’s Rising Geopolitical Significance

Al-Zubaidi’s route – Aden to Berbera (Somaliland) to Mogadishu to Abu Dhabi – underscores the growing strategic importance of Somaliland. For years, Somaliland has sought international recognition as an independent nation, but its de facto independence has allowed it to forge relationships with regional powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Berbera’s port, strategically located on the Gulf of Aden, is becoming a crucial transit point for goods and, potentially, for covert operations.

Did you know? The UAE secured a 30-year concession to operate Berbera Port in 2017, investing heavily in its development. This investment is not solely about trade; it’s about establishing a strategic foothold in the Horn of Africa.

The use of Somaliland as a transit point for al-Zubaidi highlights a broader trend: the exploitation of ungoverned spaces and fragile states by regional actors seeking to circumvent international norms and pursue their own agendas. This trend is likely to continue, particularly as geopolitical competition intensifies.

The UAE’s Shadow Game and the Future of Yemen

The UAE’s alleged role in facilitating al-Zubaidi’s escape raises serious questions about its commitment to a peaceful resolution in Yemen. While Abu Dhabi officially announced the end of its “counterterrorism mission” in Yemen, its continued support for the STC suggests a more nuanced strategy. The UAE appears to be hedging its bets, maintaining influence in southern Yemen as a means of securing its own interests, even if it means undermining Saudi-led peace efforts.

This situation creates a complex and volatile environment. The removal of al-Zubaidi from the Presidential Leadership Council by Rashad al-Alimi is a symbolic gesture, but it’s unlikely to resolve the underlying tensions. The STC remains a powerful force in southern Yemen, and its separatist ambitions are unlikely to disappear.

Implications for Regional Stability

The escalating feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has broader implications for regional stability. Both countries are key players in the fight against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, and a fractured alliance could weaken the coalition’s efforts. Furthermore, the UAE’s support for separatist movements in southern Yemen could embolden other separatist groups in the region, potentially leading to further instability.

Looking Ahead: A Fragmented Yemen and a Shifting Regional Order

The future of Yemen remains uncertain. A unified, stable Yemen seems increasingly unlikely. The most probable scenario is a continued fragmentation of the country, with the north remaining under the control of the Houthis and the south potentially evolving into an independent state, albeit one heavily influenced by the UAE.

This fragmentation will have significant consequences for the region. It could exacerbate existing conflicts, create new opportunities for terrorist groups, and further destabilize the Horn of Africa. The international community must recognize the changing dynamics in Yemen and adapt its approach accordingly. A focus on de-escalation, dialogue, and inclusive governance is essential to prevent a further deterioration of the situation.

The Rise of Non-State Actors

Beyond the immediate conflict in Yemen, the al-Zubaidi case points to a broader trend: the increasing influence of non-state actors in regional affairs. Groups like the STC, backed by external powers, are challenging the authority of traditional states and shaping the geopolitical landscape. This trend is likely to continue, requiring a reassessment of traditional approaches to conflict resolution and regional security.

Pro Tip: Monitor developments in Somaliland closely. Its strategic importance will only increase as geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa intensifies.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the Southern Transitional Council (STC)?
A: The STC is a separatist movement seeking an independent state in southern Yemen. It has historically been backed by the UAE and controls significant territory in the south.

Q: What role does Somaliland play in this conflict?
A: Somaliland serves as a strategic transit point for regional actors, offering a discreet route for movement and potentially for covert operations. Its port of Berbera is becoming increasingly important.

Q: What are the implications of the Saudi-UAE rift for Yemen?
A: The rift weakens the coalition fighting the Houthis and creates opportunities for further instability. It also complicates efforts to reach a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Q: Could Yemen break apart completely?
A: While not inevitable, a fragmented Yemen is the most likely scenario given the deep-seated divisions and the competing interests of regional powers.

What are your predictions for the future of Yemen and the role of regional powers? Share your thoughts in the comments below!