Cross-border bank credit to Asia-Pacific emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) contracted by $45.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025, marking the largest quarterly decline in two years, according to data released February 13, 2026. The region’s annual economic contraction deepened to 6% over the same period.
The decline in credit was overwhelmingly driven by China, where cross-border claims shrank by $48 billion during the quarter, effectively accounting for the entirety of the Asia-Pacific outflow. This trend signals broader shifts in global financial flows, extending beyond a purely regional issue.
The outflow from the Asia-Pacific region was marginally larger than a similar $44.9 billion decline observed in other emerging market and developing economies, suggesting a wider recalibration of risk appetite among international lenders.
Despite relatively stable macroeconomic conditions in much of Asia – characterized by subdued inflation and healthy economic growth – the contraction in credit raises concerns about the sustainability of growth in emerging Asian economies and the potential impact on businesses reliant on foreign capital. UBS recently forecast a 4.6% expansion for the region in 2024, contrasting with projected growth of 1.2% for the US, and 0.6% for the Eurozone.
Fitch Ratings maintains a Neutral Outlook on the APAC securities sector, encompassing China, Taiwan, and Japan, anticipating that rated securities firms will maintain adequate capital and liquidity buffers to manage market volatility and rising credit risks.
The risks to China’s growth are considered significant for the APAC region, as China represents the largest export market for most Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns and is a crucial supplier of intermediate products. Any further Covid-19-driven economic shocks in China could have negative economic consequences for the region.