economy

A quiet land grab is underway in Africa, not with the force of arms, but through trade delegations and investment agreements. The continent, rich in the minerals essential for the global transition to clean energy, is once again at the center of international attention as nations vie for access to its vast reserves of lithium, cobalt, graphite, manganese, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements.

The race for these resources is reshaping geopolitical dynamics, with China maintaining a significant early lead, but facing increasing competition from the United States, Europe, and Gulf states. According to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook, demand for these minerals could increase fivefold by 2035 compared to 2023 levels, putting immense pressure on supply chains.

While the 19th-century scramble for Africa was characterized by direct colonial rule, this new competition unfolds through memoranda of understanding, infrastructure financing, and strategic partnerships. The key difference today, however, is the presence of regional economic blocs that, if strategically aligned, could wield significant influence over the terms of engagement.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is at the epicenter of this mineral rush. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently dominates global cobalt production, accounting for approximately 70% of the world’s supply. Zimbabwe holds substantial lithium deposits, while South Africa controls significant reserves of platinum and manganese, and Zambia remains a key source of copper. Despite this concentration of strategic resources, value addition remains limited, with most minerals exported in their raw form.

If SADC member states can coordinate policies on beneficiation – the process of adding value to raw materials – harmonize royalty regimes, and develop regional battery precursor industries, they could significantly increase their negotiating power. Failure to do so risks a race to the bottom, as individual countries compete for foreign investment by offering increasingly favorable terms.

West Africa’s Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces a different set of challenges. Guinea’s bauxite, Ghana’s emerging lithium prospects, and widespread gold reserves position the region as a mineral heavyweight. However, governance instability and political fragmentation pose significant risks. Without regulatory harmonization, multinational corporations are likely to exploit policy gaps and asymmetries by negotiating directly with individual states.

The East African Community (EAC) is also emerging as a key player, with graphite and rare earth elements attracting growing interest. The EAC’s progress in customs integration and the development of a common market provides a foundation for coordinated industrial policy, but it remains to be seen whether this framework will extend to strategic mineral processing and regional manufacturing.

The African Union’s African Mining Vision, a long-held blueprint for resource-based industrialization, provides a continental framework. However, the vision requires enforcement. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a potential mechanism to transform mineral extraction into continental value chains, but its success hinges on alignment between regional blocs and the overarching continental strategy. Without such alignment, the AfCFTA risks becoming a trade corridor for raw exports rather than a catalyst for industrialization.

The competition is intensifying. The United States is actively seeking to re-establish its position and secure access to critical minerals through investment and strategic partnerships, challenging China’s long-held dominance. European nations, through initiatives like the 2024 Minerals Security Partnership, are also vying for a share of Africa’s mineral wealth. According to Mining Technology, Sub-Saharan Africa holds around 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves.

Experts warn that the benefits of this mineral wealth will not automatically accrue to African nations. Stephen Blitz, a macro-economist at TS Lombard, has described Africa as having “a moment of leverage,” but realizing that leverage requires strategic coordination and a commitment to value addition.

Regional blocs are currently discussing common mineral pricing principles, mandatory regional beneficiation targets, transparent contract registries, and the establishment of sovereign mineral funds to capture intergenerational value. The design of infrastructure corridors to support industrialization, rather than simply facilitating extraction, is also under consideration.

The outcome of this new scramble remains uncertain. Critical minerals have the potential to anchor Africa’s structural transformation, or they could reinforce existing patterns of dependency under a “greener” guise. The future hinges on whether Africa’s regional blocs will act as passive gateways for extraction or as strategic architects of a new industrial era.