The economist from Tachira, Aldo Contreras, presented his vision regarding the political scenario that Venezuela is currently experiencing and that could generate a Mass migration of Venezuelans and a strong economic recession in the last quarter of this year, which would take the country back to the situation it experienced in 2019.
He explained that given the uncertainty and lack of information, migration can be a option in response to political instability, So in the next few days there could be an exodus of at least three or four million people.
He said that logically the border will be the main protagonist of this outing again and we will see the return of United Nations agencies, walkers and all these scenarios that were experienced between 2016 and 2019 in greater numbers, which was stopped with the arrival of the pandemic and with the arrival of de facto dollarization in the country.
He pointed out that the increase in the price of air tickets from Maiquetía airport to Bogotá by 800 dollars gives a reading of the situation that could come, “some firms have determined that Nearly 65% of Venezuelans living in Venezuela are thinking about emigrating again”he indicated.
Added to this – he stressed – is the increase in requests for new passports at Saime offices or the increase in the purchase of airline tickets at Camilo Daza International Airport in Cúcuta. He said that, when talking to some people, they tell him that they are considering leaving the country again. There are some returnees who are thinking of returning and others who had never emigrated, so they are starting to organize their papers to see where they can migrate.
He recalled that the United States suspended humanitarian parole for Venezuela and that this situation means that North America is no longer an option through legal means. It should also be added that the new government of Panama, together with Colombia, has said that it will close the passage through the Darien jungle.
For Contreras, the United States elections are very important, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris face a scenario that could determine whether sanctions, especially against oil companies currently operating in Venezuela, will once again play an important role.
“Before Chevron arrived, Venezuela was producing 350,000 barrels of oil a day. Now it is producing over 950,000 barrels of oil, which suggests that if sanctions are imposed again, oil revenue will decrease. There will be a scenario of more inflation, more devaluation, more migration, which would bring less fiscal, tax and oil revenue to the State and the economy could go back a little,” he added.
He argued that if this $75 billion economy is compared to the $460 billion economy 10 years ago, the reality is that has fallen by 75% and I could go back again, however, the big issue and the big crux of the matter is that the economy fails to growbecause to reach the size of the economy that we had, we need to grow at least 20% annually for 10 years, and with this same economic and political model that is not going to happen.
He reiterated that if political instability continues, Venezuela will regress, stagnate and remain in a closed economyIn an economy where inflation appears to be under control, the reality is that the economy is not growing and is not generating new jobs, and above all, the price level remains stable and does not generate inflation, but understanding that the price level in Venezuela is very high.
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2024-08-13 01:20:36
