Syria’s Complex Battlefield: A Powder Keg Ignites Amidst Competing Interests
The geopolitical landscape in Syria is once again ablaze, as rebel forces seize control of major cities like Aleppo, igniting fears of further instability in a region already simmering with international tension. The recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group spun off from al-Qaeda, has thrust the Middle East onto a dangerous trajectory, extracting immediacy to the complex web of foreign influence that defines the Syrian conflict.
HTS’s sudden and decisive victory against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in the northwest highlights the fragility of a government already weakened by years of bitter civil war. Rebel attacks have forced Russian troops to withdraw from their positions near Aleppo, handing control of strategically important outposts like Tel Rifat to Iranian-backed militias.
The rapid territorial gains by HTS have triggered alarm bells in capitals across the globe.
“HTS is seizing this opportunity to strike back at a time when Syria, Russia, and Iran are weakened and exhausted by their separate conflicts,” said Mouaz Mustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Response Force, an American humanitarian organization dedicated to promoting democracy in Syria.
The resurgence of HTS raises questions about the future of the Assad regime and its ability to regain control. Russia and Iran, Assad’s key allies, seem less able to provide the level of military support they have in the past, particularly following a resurgence in Israeli strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure within Syria over the past year. This diminished support, coupled with the gains made by HTS, has intensified concerns in countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel that the fragile stability in the region could collapse further, paving the way for increased Turkish influence in Syria.
Adding to the complexity, both the United States and Turkey are supporting armed groups fighting against forces aligned with Russia and Iran. Turkey supports the Syrian National Army, a rebel group actively engaged in the fight for Aleppo. Turkey, driven by security concerns over Kurdish militia forces operating near its border, has been investing heavily in creating a buffer zone in northern Syria to curb Kurdish influence. This approach aims to create a safe passage for the millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.
The United States, despite its own tensions with Turkey over conflicting priorities in Syria, has partnered with Kurdish forces in Syria, arming the Syrian Democratic Forces to combat the remnants of the Islamic State. While there are shared interests with Turkey in countering the Islamic State threat, the United States and Turkey are proving to walk a tightrope in their approach to the ongoing battles.
The intricate alliances and competing interests have created a situation where a solution stabilized a seemingly unreachable outcome.
“Some say that because the conflict front inside Syria is not as simple as that between Israel and Hezbollah, it may be more difficult to find a solution.”
“The geopolitical situation in Syria has become even more precarious with this latest development. It is a complex conflict, intricately woven with multiple actors, each pursuing their own strategic interests. A return to a lasting peace seems ever more distant,” says a political analyst.
What will unfold in Syria remains uncertain. What is clear is that the country continues to be a stage for global power play, and the cost is borne by the Syrian people who yearn for peace and stability amidst the ruins of their homeland.
How might the international community respond to HTS’s increasing power in Syria?
## Syria’s Shifting Sands: An Interview
**Host:** Welcome back to Global Insights. Today, we’re diving deep into the escalating situation in Syria, where the power balance is shifting dramatically. Joining us is Mouaz Mustafa, Executive Director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, an organization dedicated to humanitarian relief and democratic principles in Syria. Mouaz, thank you for being with us.
**Mouaz Mustafa:** Thank you for having me.
**Host:** The capture of Aleppo by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group with roots in al-Qaeda, is undeniably a monumental development. What does this tell us about the current state of the Syrian conflict?
**Mouaz Mustafa:** This is a sign of just how fragile the situation in Syria remains. The Assad regime, weakened by years of war and struggling with diminished support from Russia and Iran, is clearly vulnerable. HTS has opportunistically seized upon this weakness, demonstrating their growing military capabilities. [[1](https://www.npr.org/2024/12/02/nx-s1-5211873/hts-islamist-syria-aleppo-assad-hayat-tahrir-al-sham)]
**Host:** You mentioned the reduced support from Russia and Iran. How significant is this factor in HTS’s recent successes?
**Mouaz Mustafa:** It’s crucial. Russia and Iran have been vital lifelines for the Assad regime, providing military and financial aid. However, both are facing numerous challenges of their own, including the ongoing war in Ukraine for Russia and internal turmoil in Iran. This leaves Assad without the same level of support he relied on in the past, creating an opening for groups like HTS.
**Host:** What are the potential implications of HTS’s control of Aleppo?
**Mouaz Mustafa:** The implications are profound and far-reaching. Aleppo is a strategically vital city, and its fall to HTS could embolden them to push further. It also raises concerns about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo, given HTS’s extremist ideology. The international community needs to be prepared for a potential surge in displacement and instability.
**Host:** How do you see this playing out on a regional level?
**Mouaz Mustafa:** The situation is extremely volatile. The vacuum created by a weakened Assad regime and the rise of HTS creates opportunities for other regional powers like Turkey to expand their influence. This could lead to further conflicts and complicate efforts to find a lasting political solution in Syria.
**Host:** What is the Syrian Emergency Task Force doing to address this crisis?
**Mouaz Mustafa:** We are working tirelessly to provide humanitarian aid to those affected by the conflict and to advocate for a democratic and peaceful resolution to the Syrian crisis. We believe the international community must come together to find a solution that ensures the safety and well-being of the Syrian people.
**Host:** Thank you for your insights, Mouaz. This is a deeply concerning situation, and we will continue to follow developments closely.