surveys and scenarios –

Alternative fur Deutschland is also trying in Brandenburg. After the victory in Thuringia and Saxony, two other key regions of the former GDR, the far-right party is considered the favorite in the “Land” of the capital Berlin, a historic stronghold of the Social Democrats who have governed it uninterruptedly since reunification in 1990. Voting is tomorrow and the polls show a very close challenge between the AfD and the SPD: the latest surveys give the far right 28% and the Social Democrats 25%, while other institutes narrow the gap and show the SPD one point behind the AfD.

THE ELECTIONS Tomorrow evening, therefore, a challenge to the last vote is expected. In a context of difficulty for the federal government led by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz and a year away from the next legislative elections, the main issues in the electoral campaign are economic issues and immigration. With the decision to reinstate border controls, the majority in Berlin is trying to wink at right-wing voters, but overtaking in Brandenburg is possible, indeed probable. Even if it were to happen, however, the far-right party would remain politically isolated, given that the other parties have ruled out wanting to form an alliance to form a coalition that includes them.

THE PREDICTIONS Polls reporting a neck-and-neck race between the AfD and the SPD also point to the slowdown of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the populist New Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), with both projected to be around 15%. The Greens and the Left Party, however, may not be able to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament in Potsdam. The neoliberal FDP, a coalition partner in the federal government, has not had a seat in the state parliament of Brandenburg since 2014.

BUT AFD OUTSIDE THE GOVERNMENT In a fragmented national political landscape, the SPD has always maintained a majority in Brandenburg, governing it since 1990. Even according to polls that confirm the advance of the far right, it is likely that the SPD will continue to govern in a coalition (which now includes the CDU and the Greens). Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke is running for his fourth term, and if he were to succeed he would surpass his predecessors Manfred Stolpe and Matthias Platzeck, who both governed Potsdam for three terms.

THE LAND With just under 2.6 million inhabitants, Brandenburg is the tenth most populous of Germany’s 16 states. The rural exodus and economic crisis that affected many of the eastern states after reunification did not occur in Brandenburg; the number of inhabitants has remained virtually unchanged. The state’s rich natural environment is one of its characteristics: more than a third of the territory is covered by forests and there are also lakes and swamps, all the way to the border with Poland. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, more and more Berliners have moved there to get out of the city and get closer to nature and take advantage of efficient transport to work in the city. Two important economic hubs of the state are the airport opened in 2020, which has become the third in Germany after Frankfurt and Munich, and the Tesla factory with around 7,000 employees. There are also several universities and a strong presence of international students and researchers.