Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the top favorite to win the presidential elections on October 2 in Brazil, with an advantage of 12 percentage points that has not changed in the last two weeks over the current president, Jair Bolsonaro.
According to a survey released Tuesday by the Ipec Institute,b The presidential candidate for the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), Lula da Silva, recorded 44% of the intention to vote in the poll recorded last week, the same percentage measured in a similar poll conducted in mid-August.
Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right leader who aspires to be re-elected by the Liberal Party (PL), obtained 32% of favoritism in the survey carried out between Friday and Sunday of last week, exactly the same percentage as in the survey released last week. July 15.
The difference between the two candidates remained stable despite the fact that the new survey interviewed the voters following the official start of the electoral campaigns, the dissemination of the first advertisements on radio and television and the showing of interviews of all the candidates in the major media outlets in the country.
Despite the fact that the survey by the Ipec firm showed that there was no change in the difference that separates the two favorite candidates and that they are the protagonists of one of the most polarized elections in the history of Brazil in the last two weeks, the other candidates registered a slight growth.
The voting intention of Labor Party member Ciro Gomes, the third most voted candidate in the last two presidential elections and who aspires for the Brazilian Labor Party (PDT), rose from 6% in mid-August to 7% at the end of this month .
And that of Senator Simone Tebet, a candidate for the centrist Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and who presents herself as the candidate of the center that wants to end the current polarization in Brazil, rose from 2% in the previous poll to 3 % in the poll of the last days.
Businessman Felipe d’Avila, a candidate for the Novo party and who promotes a clearly liberal economic model, appears in fifth place with 1% of the intention to vote in the new survey, following not having scored two weeks ago.
According to Ipec, the increase in the intention to vote for the other candidates hinders Lula’s intention to be elected president on October 2 without the need for a second round, for which he will need to have more votes than all the other candidates. together (more than half of the valid votes).
According to the new survey, the socialist leader and former union leader currently has 44% of the intention to vote, practically the same percentage as all his rivals together, which would force Brazilians to elect their president in a second round, scheduled for October 30.
The new poll showed that Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro in a possible second round has shrunk in the past two weeks.
According to Ipec, the intention to vote for the former president (2003-2010) in a possible second round fell from 51% in mid-August to 50% at the end of this month, while that of the current president rose from 35 % up to 37%. In other words, the distance that separated them was reduced from 16 points to 13 points in two weeks.
This recovery of the head of state occurred together with a slight improvement in the approval of his Government.
According to Ipec, the percentage of Brazilians who approve of Bolsonaro’s management rose from 29% in mid-August to 31% at the end of the month, that of those who rate him as regular fell from 26% to 24% %, and that of those who fail it remained stable at 43%.
For the Ipec survey, 2,000 people were interviewed between August 26 and 28 in 128 municipalities. Your margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points and your confidence level is 95%.
The Ipec survey reflects practically the same results as those of other polling companies. According to the latest survey by the firm Datafolha, Lula’s advantage (47%) over Bolsonaro (32%) is 15 percentage points.
