2024-01-04 11:54:30
Will inflation return in 2024? The fear is legitimate. Indeed, although it has persisted for many months now, the rise in consumer prices has tended to ebb. However, she jumped slightly to 3.7% over one year last December, after +3.5% in November, according to provisional data, published this Thursday by INSEE. At the origin of this rebound, “ acceleration » prices of energy and services, points out the institute.
Main driver of inflation last year, Food prices continued to slow, with an increase of 7.1% in December (compared to 7.7% in November). On the other hand, those of energy increased by 5.6% over one year in December (compared to 3.1% in November) and those of services by 3.1% (after 2.8%). The prices of energy, which represents less than a tenth of the household consumption basket, would however fall over one month, unlike those of services (around half of the basket). For their part, prices of manufactured products slowed down, to +1.4% in December year-on-year, after +1.9%.
A slowdown in food which should continue
Despite December’s rebound, inflation is still on the decline, at least on the food front. « Fortunately, we have entered a phase of disinflation: prices will not fall, but inflation will slow down », promised, at the end of November, Jean-Philippe André, president of the agri-food lobby Ania, the main organization representing agri-food companies (excluding cooperatives). As a reminder, the cost of food increased for the French by 21% between January 2021 and October 2023.
This dynamic should increase even more with the advancement ofhe annual commercial negotiations between distributors and manufacturers which will conclude early – no later than January 31, and not March 1. The government carried out this measure, adopted by Parliament, in the hope that the price reductions for certain ingredients (cereals, oils, poultry, etc.) would result as quickly as possible in a reduction in shelf prices.
A battle is therefore raging between manufacturers and mass distribution. The first comments are even starting to be heard. “ There is also good news, we have reached an agreement with Yoplait, Entremont, an important cooperative in Brittany called Laïta », affirmed Wednesday on BMFTV, the boss of Système U, Dominique Schelcher, evoking a compromise on “ reasonable price increases with a milk price that is profitable for producers ». In a tone close to his Système U counterpart, the boss of supermarkets E.Leclerc, invited on Tuesday to the microphone of France 2, expressed his determination to lower prices in his stores.
« We’re going to look for pockets of price reduction, we’re going to beat the crap out of inflation, and we’re going to end up with inflation, I think – at the end of January, beginning of February – which will be at least half as much as the year. last “, declared Michel-Edouard Leclerc.
Inflation that will not return below 3%
Still, stemming the surge in prices remains a difficult exercise. Regarding commercial negotiations, “ the deadline is shorter this year and we thought we would have a stronger mobilization », Regretted the CEO of the 4th largest player in food distribution in France. “ Many industrialists went on vacation during the holidays and we didn’t see anyone. We were mobilized, things need to speed up “, with negotiations expected to be completed by the end of the month at the latest.
« For some large industrialists, we didn’t even have a first meeting », affirmed Dominique Schelcher, before explaining that “ the law under which we are currently discussing is very favorable to industrialists and they know it. »
So many difficulties which could prevent inflation from falling below 2%. If, at the end of December, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, confirmed on Europe 1 that the inflationary crisis is indeed “ behind us “he also added that “ we will be below 3% inflation in 2024 “. Thus, the level of inflation will remain “ a little higher » than before the crisis, around 2%, due in particular to the cost of the energy transition, he warned. The government’s number two listed several reasons: “ Because we are relocating activities, because decarbonizing our economy is expensive, it is likely that the level of structural inflation will be a little higher than it was before the Covid crisis ».
Thus, in its latest forecasts published in mid-December, INSEE expects inflation to be 4.9% on average annually in 2023 (after 5.2% in 2022), and 2.6% over one year in next June. The Banque de France predicted that inflation would reach 5.7% on annual average in 2023 and fall to 2.5% in 2024, measured here according to the harmonized consumer price index (HICP).
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