Surprise Hamas Offensive Sparks Soaring Oil and Gas Prices: Geopolitical and Supply Disruption Concerns

2023-10-09 16:06:46

Oil and gas prices soared on Monday following the surprise offensive this weekend by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas once morest Israel, with the market fearing an escalation of the geopolitical situation and disruptions in supplies coming from Iran and transiting by this country.

Around 3:00 p.m. GMT (5:00 p.m. in Brussels), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in December, rose 3.95% to $87.92. That of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in November was up 4.23% to $86.29.

The two global benchmarks for black gold even briefly climbed by more than 5%, with Brent reaching $89.00 per barrel.

For its part, the price of gas also jumped. The Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, rose by around 15.87% to 44.30 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), returning to its high levels at the end of September.

On the oil side, this buying momentum was motivated “by investors who added a geopolitical risk premium to the price and new demand following last week’s sharp correction”, explains Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxobank.

Fears of supply disruptions were also sending gas prices soaring, although, as Michael Hewson of CMC Markets notes, they have yet to materialize.

The war has already left nearly 1,300 dead, according to official reports from both sides. The Israeli army on Monday ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip controlled by Hamas, on the third day of the surprise and massive offensive launched by the Palestinian Islamist movement.

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