The analysis of data from the Kantar Public barometer for The world and Franceinfo, published Monday, January 17, has something to put a little balm in the heart of Valérie Pécresse: if her sympathizers do indeed share a good part of the ideas of the National Rally (RN), a small half of her potential electorate still sees a danger in a victory for Marine Le Pen – and even more so in an election for Eric Zemmour. If many voters of the Les Républicains (LR) party are rather in favor of alliances with the far-right party, the LR candidate seems better able to represent them in the presidential election.
The convergences between the sympathizers of LR and the RN are indeed numerous. They more or less agree on the fact that French or binational jihadists must be stripped of their nationality (94% for LR, 95% for RN); they all think that justice is not severe enough with petty offenders (87% once morest 92%), they believe that traditional values are not defended enough (91% once morest 93%, – i.e. 12 points more for LR since 2021).
Nor is there a considerable gap between LR supporters who want the Islamic veil banned in public spaces (73%) and RN supporters (86%), and a majority of them , although with a difference of 20 points, also believe that there are too many immigrants in France (94% for the RN, 75% for LR, but up 8 points in one year). On the other hand, the question of Europe still separates the two families by almost 25 points.
The idea of chords is progressing
If the two electorates are close, the question of the perception of the RN remains among LR sympathizers. Only 29% of French people agree with Frontist ideas, five points more than following the failure of Marine Le Pen in 2017, but the rate is not much higher among LR sympathizers (36% ). In the same way, 44% of LR supporters think that the National Rally represents a danger, like 48% of the French, and 52% do not think so: there is indeed a break within the classic right. Finally, 23% (– 5 points) of French people consider that the Les Républicains party must fight the formation of Marine Le Pen, a proportion which drops to 15% among LR sympathizers (i.e. 18 points less than in 2021) – and they were 34% in June 2002, when Jacques Chirac was at the Elysée.
“32% of LR supporters plan to vote for the RN in the future. In total, 42% of them have already voted for the RN or plan to do so”, says Emmanuel Rivière, the international director of political studies at Kantar Public. There remains the question of electoral alliances. A third of LR supporters seem ready to take the plunge, and the idea is progressing: 47% of them believe that it is possible to make ad hoc or global agreements with the RN, i.e. 14 points more than in 2021 – no doubt due to the refocused image of Marine Le Pen, especially compared to that of Eric Zemmour.
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