2023-10-31 21:49:41
Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Tuesday (31st), leading to the first monthly decline in oil prices in five months. This was due to a decline in the risk premium for the Israel-Kazakhstan war to disrupt crude oil supply.
Energy Commodity Prices West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery fell $1.29, or 1.6%, to settle at $81.02 a barrel, the lowest price in recent months. WTI crude oilPrices closed at their lowest since August 28 and are down 10.8% this month. Delivered in DecemberBrent crude oil (Brent) futures prices fell 4 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to close at $87.41 a barrel. After four consecutive days of gains, they are still down 8.3% this month. The futures closed and expired today. January West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.33, or 1.5%, to settle at $85.02 a barrel. Gasoline futures for November delivery rose 0.1% to settle at $2.22 a gallon, but fell 8.9% for the month. The futures expire at the close of trading today. Delivered in NovemberThermal Fuel FuturesPrices fell 0.8% to settle at $2.99 a gallon, but are down 11% for the month. The futures expire at the close of trading today. Natural gas futures for December delivery rose nearly 6.7% to settle at $3.58 per million Btu. It rose 22.1% this month.market drivers
Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, believes that in terms of Middle East news, oil traders may have shifted to an “efficient market” model, waiting for signs that tensions have escalated significantly and endangered supply before pushing up oil prices once more.
WTI has given up all its gains since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, while Brent crude oilIt also sharply pared gains since the outbreak of the Israel-Kazakhstan war, although the risk of an expansion of the conflict continues.
ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey believe that the biggest concern lies in the flow of Iranian oil. If the United States imposes stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the crude oil market will lose 1 million barrels per day of supply. However, the Middle East conflict has so far not affected oil supplies. It is difficult for prices to continue to rise significantly without supply disruptions in the region.
Despite this, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable. Saudi Arabia’s military is on high alert following deadly clashes with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, foreign reports reported late Monday. The Houthi armed forces attempted to use the skies over Saudi Arabia to launch missiles at Israel.
The Macquarie report wrote that while they remain bearish on oil prices, they are “aware of the upside risks associated with the conflict in the Middle East,” but supply will not be disrupted until there is a substantial escalation between the two sides. Although the ZTO conflict does not need to be fully resolved to reduce risk premiums, they were still “surprised by the speed of the pullback” in prices.
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