2023-08-10 03:50:01
Silicon Valley computer server manufacturer Supermicro (Supermicro) (SMCI-US) The quarterly financial forecast released following the close on Tuesday was not as expected. MarketWatch columnist Threrse Poletti wrote that CEO Liang Jianhou (Charles Liang) expressed the hope that Huida would speed up the expansion of production capacity. supply bottleneck. AI stocks were booming on Wednesday (9th), Supermicro plunged nearly 24%, Huida (NVDA-US) also tumbled nearly 5%.
Supermicro plunged 23.39% to US$266.13 per share on Wednesday, while Huida fell 4.72% to US$425.54 per share. These two popular AI stocks have soared 206% and 303% this year to the close of Tuesday.
The stock price trend of Supermicro and Huida this year. Figure taken from MarketWatch
Although Supermicro’s financial report for the last quarter released following the close on Tuesday was better than market expectations, its forecast for this quarter has disappointed the market: the revenue forecast for this quarter is between US$1.9 billion and US$2.2 billion, and the median is not as good as analysts’ estimates 2.2 billion US dollars, adjusted EPS of 2.75-3.50 US dollars, also lower than analysts’ expectations of 3.21 US dollars.
Supermicro also estimates that revenue for the current year (ending June 30, 2024) will be between US$9.5 billion and US$10.5 billion, but the median is still less than analysts’ forecast of US$10.31 billion.
During the conference, Liang told analysts that he found a supply bottleneck in Huida’s AI graphics chip (GPU). An analyst at the scene asked that Huida had estimated that the revenue of data centers in the quarter ending July would double. Does this represent the difference between Huida’s daily revenue and that of equipment manufacturers such as Supermicro? , there is a time gap (lag time)?
Liang responded following seeing this: “We believe that Huida’s production capacity is growing, so we ask them for more supplies every day. I hope we can get more support from Huida, and I hope their production capacity can be faster. Grow. That’s all I can reveal at this moment.”
According to Supermicro Chief Financial Officer David Weigand, AI server revenue now accounts for 52 percent of the company’s overall revenue, up from 30 percent in the previous quarter.
While Supermicro said the outlook for strong demand for AI servers remains strong, the company also said that overall data center demand is declining. When asked regarding non-AI business and non-AI server spending, Liang Jianhou said that sales of other businesses were basically flat, while the industry as a whole was declining.
Huida will announce its financial report and financial forecast in late August. Poletti believes that although Huida previously estimated that the quarter’s revenue might reach US$11 billion, investors may be more concerned regarding whether the supply bottleneck will affect Huida’s financial forecast.
Huida fell below the 50-day moving average Baron: Don’t worry yet
Huida announced the new generation of super chipset GH200 on Tuesday, but the stock price fell instead of rising that day, closing down 1.7%. After falling 4.7% on Wednesday, it officially fell below the 50-day moving average.
Still, Barron’s contributor Ben Levisohn thinks investors shouldn’t panic just yet: Over the past three years, Huida has traded below its 50-day moving average 21 times, only to gain an average 18% in the subsequent three months.
Not only that, within three months of falling below the 50-day moving average, the probability of the stock price falling once more is less than one-third, which means that the probability of rising is relatively high.
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