Presidential and/or parliamentary elections are also taking place in several large and important countries around the world this year, as well as in the European Union.
One election already caused an international stir at the beginning of this year: namely the victory of the independence supporter Lai Ching-te (William Lai) in the presidential election in Taiwan on January 13th. Beijing, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province of the People’s Republic of China, immediately denounced Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim as a “dangerous pro-independence duo.”
Below is a selection of the upcoming important international election dates:
USA
- Presidential election, lower house election, partial Senate election, November 5th:
In the US presidential election, Republican former President Donald Trump is hoping for revenge once morest his Democratic rival, incumbent Joe Biden, whose 2020 election victory he never officially recognized. He was recently able to prove at the start of the primary election in Iowa that the blustering Trump, who is involved in numerous legal proceedings, is still the favorite of many Republican voters. However, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to maintain his winning streak in less conservative states.
The advanced age of the two favored presidential candidates is striking: the election in November will take place two weeks before Biden’s 82nd birthday; Trump will be 78 years old at this point. In addition to the US presidential election, which will probably attract the most national and international attention, the elections for the House of Representatives and a partial Senate election also traditionally take place on this day.
Russia
- Presidential election, March 15-17 March:
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has effectively ruled the country since 2000, wants to cement his power even more in the presidential election in March. Since a constitutional change in 2020, he can now run for two six-year terms once more and thus remain at the head of state until 2036 – by which time Putin would already be 84 years old. According to observers, the opposing candidates who have already officially competed have no chance. The best-known opposition figure Alexei Navalny is excluded from the elections because of his imprisonment in a prison camp.
EU
- Parliamentary election, June 6-9 June:
Elections to the European Parliament are taking place in the European Union this year. The election date in Austria is Sunday, June 9th. This time the number of seats in the EU Parliament will be increased from 705 to 720, meaning that Austria will now have 20 instead of the previous 19 members of the European Parliament.
While surveys show that the two largest parliamentary groups in the EU Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Social Democrats (S&D), can essentially maintain the number of their seats, the right-wing populist ID group, in which the FPÖ also sits, is likely to and might gain will even make up the third largest faction in the future. The Conservatives and Reformists (EKR) are also expected to make gains and are in a neck-and-neck race with the liberal Renew faction. As things stand, this is likely to lose the most votes along with the Greens/EFA.
If
- Lower and upper house elections, spring 2024, date still open:
In the elections in India, the Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been in power since 2014, can once once more count on a victory for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or its electoral alliance NDA. The most important opposition force, the secular Congress Party (CPI), has gathered a party alliance under the name INDIA, but is unlikely to pose a threat to the government power of the Hindu nationalists.
In the run-up to the election, Modi took part in a highly symbolic religious-political event for many Hindus in India: namely the inauguration of the new Rama temple in the northern Indian city of Ayodhya on January 22nd. In its place once stood a 16th-century mosque, the Babri Masjid, which was demolished in December 1992 by an angry Hindu mob led by the BJP and the Hindu nationalist movement VHP. In the nationwide unrest that followed, around 2,000 people, mostly Muslims, died. The Indian Hindu nationalists like to portray Islam as the religion of foreign occupying powers in reference to the earlier Muslim rule on parts of the Indian subcontinent. The inauguration of the temple for the mythical god-king Rama, who, according to legend, was born at this point in Ayodhya , is therefore seen as a triumph of religious-political Hinduism so shortly before the parliamentary elections.
Great Britain
- General election, date still open:
A change of power following 14 years is expected in the United Kingdom this year: It is not yet clear when the next general election will take place, and the last possible date for this is January 2025. However, it is generally expected that the British will go to the polls later this year be called. There is speculation that the election might take place shortly following the second anniversary of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s inauguration at the end of October. Sunak’s ruling Conservatives must expect defeat: they have been consistently trailing Labor, the strongest opposition force, by up to 20 percentage points in polls for many months.
Iran
- Parliamentary election and Expert Council election, March 1st:
When the Shiite theocracy of Iran heads to the parliamentary elections this year, it will have had dramatic months behind it both in terms of domestic politics and in its international relations. The death of the young Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in prison following she refused to wear the Islamic headscarf sparked massive nationwide protests from autumn 2022. While the Iranian regime has now been able to largely suppress the protest movement, the focus is now primarily on its indirect involvement in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas.
Tehran supports both Hamas and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, both of which fight once morest Israel, as well as the Yemeni Houthi militias, which recently caused significant disruption to global supply routes by attacking container ships passing through the Red Sea . Most recently, the country was shaken on January 3rd by an attack on a memorial event for General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, who was deliberately killed by a US drone four years ago, in which almost 100 people died. The radical Islamic Sunni militia “Islamic State” (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack.
As in previous parliamentary elections in Iran, many reformist candidates are expected to be excluded. However, what makes this election particularly important is the fact that the Council of Experts will also be replaced parallel to the parliamentary election. This 88-member constitutional body is responsible for appointing the future Supreme Leader, the country’s highest political and religious authority. Since the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in office since 1989, is already 84 years old, the now elected council might have the decision to choose his successor. For eight years, the people elect the new members of the Council of Experts for their respective region from a list of thoroughly vetted, regime-friendly people. The most prominent candidates for the next expert council are likely to be the incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi and his reformist predecessor Hassan Rouhani.
South Africa
- Parliamentary election, indirect presidential election, mid-2024, date still to be determined:
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since 1994, is facing the risk of losing its absolute majority in parliament for the first time. The country, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa since 2018, has struggled with a variety of problems, including massive power outages and widespread violence and corruption. The corona pandemic has also severely affected the country and plunged millions of people into poverty.
The ANC’s main challenger is the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), which this time has assembled an eight-party alliance. The party, which is particularly popular among the white minority, has ruled out a coalition with the ANC following the elections. If the long-standing ruling party actually loses its parliamentary majority and fails to find a coalition partner to continue governing, it would be a test of the country’s democratic maturity. In addition, the parliamentary election is also of crucial importance for President Ramaphosa’s possible continued government: the newly constituted parliament elects a president, who is also head of government, from its own ranks, usually the head of the largest parliamentary party.
Indonesia
- Presidential and parliamentary elections, February 14:
The Southeast Asian country will hold the world’s largest one-day presidential election by eligible voters in mid-February. After the popular incumbent Joko Widodo failed to secure a third term in office, he is now trying to indirectly influence the candidates. He is therefore supporting his former opponent, the 72-year-old defense minister and former general Prabowo Subianto, who is accused of human rights violations during the rule of the former dictator Suharto (1966-1998). As a special coup, the President even allowed the Constitutional Court to allow his 36-year-old son Gibran Rakabuming to run for vice-presidency alongside Prabowo. According to the law, Gibran would actually have to be at least 40 years old for this position.
This means that President Jokowi, as he is known, also distances himself from the official candidate of his ruling party PDI-P, Ganjar Pranowo. The youthful-looking 55-year-old former governor of Central Java province represents modernist, secular positions. However, in surveys, at around 20 percent, he is now well behind Defense Minister Prabowo, who is already measured at around 50 percent. The tipping point is likely to be the former governor of the Jakarta capital region, 54-year-old Anies Baswedan, with whom Ganjar is currently neck and neck in the polls. If neither pair of candidates wins an absolute majority on February 14th, a runoff election will take place on June 26th.
