2023-06-23 10:34:11
More than 30,000 people have died in connection with summer heat in France since 2014, according to the public health agency. This mortality does not only concern heat waves.
Since 2014, between 30,000 and 35,000 people have died in the summer in France due to the effects of the heat, the public health agency estimated on Friday, stressing that this mortality did not only concern periods of heat wave.
“It should be noted that a large part – a third – concerns people under the age of 75”, underlines this study published by Public Health France, one of the first to assess the links between heat and mortality in the country. in recent years, in a context marked by the probable effects of global warming.
The last few years have indeed been marked by an increase in the number of heat waves – periods of very high heat -, particularly in 2019 and 2022. While it is impossible to systematically make a link between each of these heat waves and global warming , this undeniably contributes to increasing their frequency.
More than 3000 more deaths in 2022
The public health agency had already given figures showing a high excess mortality during these heat wave episodes. It had thus recorded 6,969 excess deaths, including 29% during heat waves, the highest figure since 2014. The impact had also increased in 2018, 2019 and 2020, with each time more than 4,000 excess deaths.
The impact noted in 2022 is particularly observed by scientists, believing that it can foreshadow years to come. The summer was then marked by very high temperatures throughout the season with extreme peaks and a risk aggravated probably by the air pollution generated by the fires.
But his latest work goes further by evaluating the mortality linked to all periods of summer heat and not just the intense peaks of heat waves.
Indeed, “exposure of the general population during hot days outside of heat waves (…) is often perceived as not presenting a health issue, while it is also associated with an increased risk of deaths,” the study said.
Between 1000 and 7000 deaths per year
Unsurprisingly, this study demonstrates that the risk of mortality increases as temperatures rise. In detail, she estimates that between 1,000 and 7,000 deaths are attributable to heat every year.
Deaths do not occur only during heat waves, even if they are more frequent during these periods: 28%, or nearly a third, of deaths for these episodes of high heat alone.
People are the first victims of this phenomenon, since they represent two-thirds of deaths, two-thirds of which concern individuals over 75 years of age.
Three times more heat-related deaths than heat waves alone
In the end, the agency estimates that between 29,612 and 34,975 deaths are attributable between 2014 and 2022 to the summer heat, i.e. three times more than the deaths linked to heat waves alone.
To arrive at these estimates, the researchers used models, which are difficult to summarize. These not only take into account the evolution of temperatures and that of mortality, but also try to distinguish the role of heat from other factors such as the Covid pandemic in particular.
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