2023-10-16 08:13:04
Xinhua News Agency, Cairo, October 16. Summary: The Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to escalate, and international oil prices have become more volatile.
Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Rui and Zhang Jiananna
The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than a week, pushing international crude oil prices into an upward channel. New York oil prices rose significantly on the 13th, with the price of New York light crude oil futures for delivery in November rising by $4.78 to close at $87.69 per barrel. The future direction of oil prices has become the focus of attention from all parties.
The Middle East is rich in oil reserves, accounting for more than one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade. The sharp rise in geopolitical risks has made the crude oil market on pins and needles.
On the 13th, the Israeli military asked millions of residents in the northern part of the Palestinian Gaza Strip to evacuate to the southern area, saying that the Israeli army would launch a “major” operation in Gaza City in the next few days. Crude oil prices rose sharply that day.
The October crude oil market monthly report recently released by the International Energy Agency shows that although the current international crude oil supply is not directly affected by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, market concerns may intensify as the conflict continues.
Analysts pointed out that currently, the oil market is facing positive factors such as Saudi Arabia and Russia extending voluntary production cuts until the end of the year, as well as negative factors such as global macroeconomic indicators being lower than expected and U.S. gasoline deliveries falling to a two-year low. All factors will have an important impact on the future direction of oil prices.
Meanwhile, oil demand will face reduced travel and rising seasonal inventories in the fourth quarter of this year. The International Energy Agency’s October crude oil market monthly report shows that crude oil supply is expected to remain relatively scarce in the fourth quarter, but if Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production reduction measures are lifted in January next year, crude oil supply may eventually become surplus.
The impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on important surrounding oil-producing countries and the response measures of these countries have become the focus of market attention. Analysts pointed out that in the context of the continued escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, regional spillover effects are gradually emerging, and this has become the biggest uncertain factor affecting the direction of international oil prices in the future.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, said that without the participation of other countries, the conflict will have a limited impact on oil prices; but if Iran is involved, oil prices may rise sharply.
Alan Gelder, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Consulting, a British energy research company, believes that if the conflict expands, the most direct market impact may be the United States adopting stricter sanctions on Iranian exports.
Bob McNally, president of the US Rapidan Energy Consulting Company, said in an interview with the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) that if Iran is involved in the conflict, oil prices may rise by US$5 to US$10.
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