2023-05-01 14:04:47
Given the strategic location of Sudan, the possibility of the conflict expanding and extending to neighboring countries, and thus to the Sahel region, remains strongly present, especially with the availability of several factors affecting this.
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Sudanese refugees from the southern region of Tandelti receive aid in a Chadian border village.
The American magazine “Foreign Policy” stated in an article published today, Monday, under the title “Sudan’s war may not remain in Sudan,” that the struggle for power in Sudan may lead to the destabilization of the neighboring country of Chad, and the impact on the entire African Sahel region.
The magazine drew attention to the possibility that the events in Sudan had “moved a hornet’s nest in the region,” pointing to the strong possibility that the war would have a “domino effect” across Chad and the already volatile Sahel region.
Given Sudan’s proximity to Chad and the Central African Republic, the crisis will have dire consequences for regional peace and security, and the fighting is particularly important given the rise of extremism in coastal West Africa.
One of the results of the ongoing conflict in Sudan is the expected proliferation of weapons throughout the region, which might lead to an expansion of the illegal arms trade. What may complicate this problem is the porous nature of the region’s borders, as is the case in Burkina Faso and Chad. Mali, Niger and Nigeria.
The disputed areas raise the risk of these weapons falling into the wrong hands, as well as the possibility of infiltration of terrorist elements, and if the conflict is left uncontained, it might easily turn into a large-scale regional war, according to the magazine.
She explained that external actors, such as China, France and Russia, maintain the presence of vital interests in the Chad Basin and the African coast in general, stressing that these countries can quickly be drawn into the interactions of this conflict as well.
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Continuous flight from conflict zones will also exacerbate displacement in the region, which would provide a potential avenue for the recruitment of more vulnerable populations by terrorist organizations, which seek to transform the Sahel region into an area of concentration for their presence.
The magazine pointed to France’s inability, following its decision to leave Mali in 2022, to bear the collapse of Sudan from within, and made it clear that what really worries Paris is Chad’s weakness and its inability to fend off external threats.
The United States, Britain, and the European Union also have interests in the region, and these countries also need to ensure regional stability to ensure international trade, which, if its paths are affected, will be affected by the strength of Western countries, especially with the crises they are experiencing.
Ending the conflict in Sudan requires finding a peace process free of military confrontations, according to the magazine, explaining that both sides of the conflict must abide by the framework of the agreement that was to be signed on the first of April, stressing that it is a difficult task, but not impossible.
Continuing the fighting will only lead to more regional instability and further endanger large areas of Africa.
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