Sudan’s Army Claims Key Victory in khartoum, but Path to Peace Remains Uncertain
Table of Contents
- 1. Sudan’s Army Claims Key Victory in khartoum, but Path to Peace Remains Uncertain
- 2. Army Recaptures Presidential Palace
- 3. Potential Shifts in the Conflict’s Trajectory
- 4. The Humanitarian Crisis Worsens
- 5. Implications for the United States
- 6. What do you think theaverage Sudanese citizen thinks is the best answer to the conflict in Sudan?
- 7. Sudan Conflict: Interview with Dr. Amina Hassan, Geopolitical Analyst
By Barbara Plett Usher, BBC News
Army Recaptures Presidential Palace
The sight of jubilant soldiers in Khartoum signals a notable advance in the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) offensive, which has seen the army reclaim territory in recent months. The SAF, having initially lost control of the capital, Khartoum, early in the conflict, has been engaged in a two-year battle to regain control from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The recapture of the presidential palace is a strategic and symbolic win, despite the war dragging on.
For Americans following the conflict, this development highlights the complexities of modern warfare and the challenges of achieving lasting peace in politically unstable regions. The U.S. has a vested interest in promoting stability in Sudan, given its strategic location and the potential for regional destabilization.
The presidential palace complex, including the historic republican Palace, “is a symbol of power and sovereignty, significant for the military-led government and its narrative as legitimate rulers fighting a ‘terrorist militia.'”
according to an army spokesman,the army has cleared outer districts of greater Khartoum and seized much of the city center,pushing RSF fighters out of key sites like government buildings and away from the military’s General Headquarters. He said that this means the RSF has in effect lost its control of the capital, even tho its fighters are still present in Khartoum.
Despite this progress, intense fighting is expected to continue as the army attempts to dislodge remaining RSF units. The RSF has proven its resilience, even launching a drone attack at the palace that resulted in the deaths of Sudanese journalists and army officers.
Potential Shifts in the Conflict’s Trajectory
A decisive army victory in Khartoum could possibly alter the course of the war or solidify the territorial division that separates the two opposing forces. The RSF, under the command of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, maintains control over most of the Darfur region in western sudan, as well as parts of the south.
Conversely, the military-backed government, led by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, holds sway over eastern and northern Sudan. The two generals, who once collaborated and jointly orchestrated a coup, saw their alliance collapse into a civil war.A power struggle between them exploded into civil war in April 2023.
Complete control of Khartoum could enable the army to consolidate its authority over central Sudan, where it has been steadily reclaiming territory from the RSF. It could also provide the SAF with the impetus to challenge General Hemedti in his Darfur stronghold,especially in the city of El Fasher,which has been under RSF siege for almost a year.
However, many observers fear that Sudan may be heading toward a de facto partition, with the warring factions and their backers solidifying their positions within their respective zones of influence.
The RSF is actively establishing a parallel government in the areas under its control, uniting allied groups to sign a political charter and constitution in Nairobi last month.
Their aim “was to show that despite battlefield setbacks, it remains a potent force – and that its desire to take control of the country remains undimmed.”
The Humanitarian Crisis Worsens
The Sudanese people are suffering the most from the civil war, which has caused mass death, destruction, and violations of human rights.
The United Nations has called the situation “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” More than 12 million people have had to leave their homes, and millions are facing famine, with some parts of the country already in famine conditions.
Khartoum is expected to reach famine conditions soon as of widespread looting by RSF soldiers and restrictions on aid by the Sudanese government. A change of power in the city could help improve humanitarian conditions there.
For most Sudanese people, however, it’s unlikely that much will change for now.
According to UN officials, both sides have been accused of blocking emergency aid and using it as a weapon of war. Both sides have also been accused of war crimes, though critics single out the RSF for mass rape and genocide.
The army hopes that retaking the Presidential Palace will be the first step toward a wider military victory.
Though, according to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, even though the SAF has momentum, it is indeed unlikely that either side can win enough to govern all of Sudan.
Still, both sides have promised to keep fighting for the whole country, and efforts to restart peace talks have failed up to now.
Implications for the United States
The ongoing conflict in Sudan presents several implications for the United States.A protracted civil war could led to increased regional instability, potentially drawing in neighboring countries and creating a breeding ground for extremist groups. The U.S. has historically been involved in humanitarian efforts in Sudan, and the escalating crisis may require increased aid and diplomatic engagement.
Furthermore,the conflict could disrupt trade routes and impact U.S. economic interests in the region. The U.S. government may face pressure to impose sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses and obstructing peace efforts.
What do you think theaverage Sudanese citizen thinks is the best answer to the conflict in Sudan?
Sudan Conflict: Interview with Dr. Amina Hassan, Geopolitical Analyst
Archyde news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Hassan. Thank you for joining us today. We’re following the developments in Sudan very closely, especially the army’s recent claim of victory in Khartoum. Can you give us your assessment of the situation?
Dr. Amina Hassan: thank you for having me. The recapture of the presidential palace is undoubtedly a meaningful military and symbolic gain for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). However, it’s crucial to remember that the conflict is far from over. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still control significant territories, and intense fighting is expected to continue despite the SAF’s advances.
Archyde News Editor: Given this, what does the recapture of the palace tell us in the context of the larger conflict? does it change the predicted trajectory?
Dr. Amina Hassan: It’s a pivotal moment, certainly. It strengthens the SAF’s position and narrative as the legitimate authority. Though,the RSF’s resilience is well-documented. The battle isn’t just about territorial control; it’s a power struggle between the army and the RSF. The RSF has shown that thay can maintain a strong presence in many areas despite setbacks. We could be moving towards a de facto partition that could lead to the split of the country or solidify the power of the two different groups.
Archyde News Editor: The humanitarian crisis is a major concern. Reports indicate a severe and worsening situation. What steps are needed to alleviate the suffering?
Dr. Amina hassan: The humanitarian situation is dire. The UN has called it the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Millions have been displaced, and famine looms.Both sides of the conflict really need to allow aid to get to suffering citizens. A ceasefire is a must, and unhindered access for humanitarian organizations is critical. Addressing the crisis requires a multi-faceted approach involving international aid, diplomatic pressure on both sides to allow aid to reach those in need, and a commitment to accountability for human rights violations.
Archyde News Editor: What role does the U.S. have in this situation? What are the core interests at stake?
Dr. Amina Hassan: The U.S. has a significant stake in Sudan. A destabilized Sudan can have regional implications. The U.S. needs to continue its humanitarian aid and diplomatic efforts. It may also need to consider sanctions on those hindering peace efforts. It’s a complex balancing act between promoting stability, protecting human rights, and safeguarding U.S. interests in the region.
Archyde News Editor: Looking ahead,what are the most likely scenarios for Sudan? And,do you see a path towards a lasting peace in the long term?
Dr. Amina Hassan: Unfortunately, the path to peace is long and uncertain. The most likely scenarios include continued fighting,possibly leading to a de facto partition,or a prolonged stalemate. A lasting peace would require genuine dialog and compromise between the warring factions, along with strong international mediation and support. Both sides must come to the table and put their country ahead of their own selfish desires.What do you think the average Sudanese citizen thinks is the best answer? I think that is the question the world should ask.
Archyde News editor: Dr. Hassan, thank you very much for your insightful analysis. It’s been a pleasure.
Dr. amina Hassan: Thank you for having me.
