2023-07-27 17:06:04
Posted Jul 27, 2023, 5:38 PMUpdated on Jul 27, 2023 at 7:06 PM
It is a study that comes at the right time, as the government prepares to revise subsidized contracts. The research department of the Ministry of Labor (Dares) published a study on Thursday on the effects in terms of employment and the windfall effects of these hiring subsidy schemes.
Its approach is innovative compared to previous work, since it involves an indirect evaluation through the estimation of the impact of the sudden drop in the number of subsidized contracts, upon the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée, six years ago.
For the record, their stock excluding National Education had been divided by three between June 2017 and June 2018, going from 182,500 to 63,400. “All other things being equal, the maintenance of a job despite the removal of public aid suggests that the creation of this job might have taken place even in the absence of this aid”, underlines the Dares.
Stock divided by three in 2017
Regarding the employment effect, the conclusion of this work is that out of 100 subsidized contracts created in the non-profit sector, 74 would not have been if they had not been subsidised. In the market sector, which is much less subsidized, the proportion is almost the opposite since out of 100 subsidized contracts created, 39% would not have been without the financial aid of the State.
The windfall effect appears to be identical to the estimate made in 2014 by survey for non-market contracts, at 26%. On the other hand, it is a little lower than this estimate for merchant contracts, at 61% compared to 75% nine years ago.
Employment rate and coverage rate
It is interesting to note the existence of different limits depending on the method. The first figure did not exclude under-declaration of the deadweight effect by employers, the second does not include the possibility that several subsidized jobs, essentially part-time, have been replaced by full-time jobs. .
That being said, the Dares study which has just been published provides another valuable lesson in the management of employment policies, concerning the extent of the windfall effect and therefore the effectiveness of spent. It compares the job takeover rate to the weight of the public subsidy in the total cost of employment. “Overall, among all employers using the scheme, approximately two-thirds of jobs are financed ex nihilo by the aid (employment effect) while one-third of them would be created even without the public subsidy (effect of ‘windfall)’, concludes the study.
The Covid epidemic had led to the relaunch in 2021 of the use of these employment policy tools previously widely used to limit, even marginally, the rise in unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment. From 2022, the number of contracts had been revised downwards. At the end of April 2023, the last known month, the Dares counted 46,000 Skills employment paths (PEC), denomination of non-commercial assisted contracts, and 19,700 CUI-CIE, name of commercial contracts.
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