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The World Bank has revised growth downwards for nearly 60% of countries, including more than 70% of metal exporters who should be penalized by the continued fall in world prices.
Barely emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, the States of sub-Saharan Africa have suffered the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine. In this part of the black continent, the World Bank expects growth of 3.6% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.
« Despite the expected easing of inflationary pressures, the pace of recovery is expected to remain stable in many countries due to the negative impact of persistent poverty and food insecurity on growth, amplified by other vulnerability such as adverse weather, high debt, political uncertainty, violence and conflict adds the financial institution in its latest economic outlook.
Sub-Saharan countries whose economies depend on the export of metals will be more affected by the decline in growth. ” This slowdown constitutes a major obstacle for the economic development of sub-Saharan Africa. Per capita income is expected to increase by only 1.2% on average in 2023-2024 “, underlines the World Bank.
Continuing, it announces this year that per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain more than 1% lower than in 2019. And projections anticipate that in nearly 40% of countries, including the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Angola and Nigeria – per capita income will not have returned to pre-pandemic levels even by the end of 2024.
In these three countries, reports the Bretton Woods institution, ” growth has contracted sharply to just 2.6% in 2022 “. The Rainbow Nation” recorded only 1.9% growth due (particularly) to worsening power shortages and tighter policies to curb inflation », explains the World Bank.
On the other hand, in Angola, the high oil prices and the stability of the production of black gold allowed a rebound of 3.1%. Nigeria, for its part, saw its growth weaken due to the intensification of production problems in the oil sector. As a result, inflation there “ exceeded 21% in 2022, its highest level in 17 years ».
Overall, notes the financial institution, ” pressures on food prices, already high before the pandemic, have further intensified due to the vagaries of the weather, supply disruptions aggravated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, fragility and increased insecurity and, in some countries, strong currency depreciations ».
Last year, food price inflation exceeded 20% in more than a quarter of countries. This has slowed the growth of real incomes and consumer demand and aggravated food insecurity.
« Despite the recent softening in global food and energy prices, import costs have remained high, contributing to widening current account deficits. Precarious fiscal positions due to the pandemic have persisted, and last year public debt exceeded 60% of GDP in almost half of the economies in the region. Debt sustainability has deteriorated further in many non-oil producing countries, leading to higher borrowing costs, capital outflows and credit rating downgrades concludes the World Bank.
