(Original title: Strong economic resilience and sufficient policy space, China’s macroeconomic stability and good momentum will not change)
Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Gao Ping) news,Recently, the epidemic has rebounded in many places in China, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has become tense, the internal and external environment has become more complex and severe, and China’s economic growth is also facing some uncertain factors. However, according to information recently learned by a reporter from the Financial Associated Press from a number of authoritative sources, from the perspective of the current fundamentals of China’s economy, the impact of uncertain factors is limited, and the trend of China’s economic stability and improvement will not change. China’s economy is resilient, has a large policy space, and continues to implement policies to stabilize growth. It is fully capable of maintaining a stable economy.
Today, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting, emphasizing earnestly revitalizing the economy in the first quarter, and proposing that monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth; for real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and propose strong and effective response plans to prevent and defuse risks , put forward supporting measures for the transition to a new development model; at the same time, actively introduce policies that are favorable to the market, and cautiously introduce contractionary policies.
Industry insiders said that this financial committee meeting responded to the focus of market concerns and sent a signal of stable expectations to the market. Fiscal policies and monetary policies that have been implemented in the early stage require a process for their implementation to take effect, and it will also take time for them to be transmitted to the real economy. It is expected that following this meeting of the Finance Committee, policies to stabilize growth will be introduced one following another, and the effects of the policies will be gradually realized.
The previous policy has gradually shown results
Xu Xianchun, a researcher at the National School of Development of Peking University and former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said recently that a growth rate of 5.5% is an economic growth target of great practical and historical significance. At present, China’s economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. It is not easy to achieve the 5.5% target, but it can be achieved through hard work.
In fact, in order to achieve this goal, all walks of life have begun to “steady growth” action. In the fourth quarter of last year, China issued 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and at the same time, it issued a limit of 1.46 trillion yuan for new special bonds in 2022 ahead of schedule. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance of local bonds has accelerated, and local government investment has increased significantly. All localities actively promote the construction of major investment projects in the manufacturing industry, and many local new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and other large projects have started one following another. A package of relief and assistance policies has also been gradually implemented to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service sector. In addition, housing policy is also showing marginal signs of easing. The central bank instructs banks to increase the amount of mortgages, development loans and M&A loans to support the mitigation of market risks. “City-specific policies” have been adopted in various places to protect the release of reasonable demand in the real estate market.
Measures to stabilize growth are also gradually showing results. From January to February this year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 7,442.6 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year; the total import and export of goods was 6,204.4 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year, and the investment in fixed assets increased by 12.2% year-on-year .
“This is a sign of growth recovery following the country has adopted a series of policy measures to stabilize growth.” Xu Xianchun predicts that the industrial added value will further rebound in the future, providing support for economic growth.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, also believes that the economic data from January to February was better than expected due to the advance of the previous stable growth policy.
Stabilizing expectations and maintaining a clear attitude towards market players
Since March, the most economically active Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have been affected by the rebound of the epidemic, casting a shadow over China’s economic recovery. Superimposed on the turmoil of the current world situation, the market has shown strong concerns regarding the realization of this year’s economic growth target.
In the short term, Tang Jianwei believes that although the marginal growth rate has slowed down, the current export still maintains a high degree of prosperity. The growth rate of investment has accelerated significantly, and the investment potential in the fields of infrastructure and people’s livelihood is huge. However, the weak confidence of microeconomic entities is a major problem at present, which also makes “stabilizing expectations” the current focus of work.
However, looking at the whole year of this year, Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that although China’s economic development is facing triple pressures and rising geopolitical tensions, this year’s fiscal policy is increasing fiscal spending. Monetary policy also has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. Coupled with the resilience of the Chinese economy itself, it is fully capable of achieving the 5.5% target.
Yao Yang, president of the National School of Development of Peking University and director of the China Economic Research Center, also bluntly said that this year, both monetary policy and fiscal policy, have been very strong, which is enough to show the confidence of the central government to protect market players, which is not often seen in previous years. .
Regarding the driving force of economic growth this year, Xu Xianchun believes that the recovery of consumer demand should be further promoted. In the short term, we should start with ensuring employment and implement measures to stabilize employment; in the long run, we should focus on the reform of income distribution, increase the share of labor income, and narrow the income gap.
In addition, in order to promote investment and production, attention should be paid to protecting market players and promoting the reduction of production and operation costs of enterprises. Xu Xianchun said that in order to ensure the stability of net export demand, multiple measures can be taken to stabilize foreign trade. On the one hand, it will strengthen export credit support and speed up the progress of export tax rebates; on the other hand, it will accelerate the development of new formats and new models of foreign trade.
Tang Jianwei believes that macro policies still need to maintain a certain degree of strength. Among them, monetary policy still needs to make efforts to ease credit, fiscal policy should implement tax rebates and tax cuts as soon as possible, and increase fiscal expenditure to stabilize investment in infrastructure and manufacturing to ensure that macro aggregate demand remains stable.
