Strike on the Dnieper: The Missile Mayhem Unveiled
Well, well, well! What do we have here? Vladimir Putin and his band of merry missile makers have decided to play a little game of “Whac-A-Mole” with Ukraine using their not-so-secret weapons. And just like all great parties, they brought their own bombs! On the morning of November 21, Russia decided to throw a massive missile attack at the Dnieper, and what a display it was! If this was a talent show, there’d be a standing ovation for the Kinzhal and the X-101. Although, it’s safe to say only one of them shot straight. Six out of seven? Makes you wonder if they were throwing foam darts at a wall instead of ballistic missiles!
The Heavyweight Champions of Mischief
According to the powers that be, Zelensky claims that Putin is using Ukraine as a “live-fire test range.” So, what, he’s turned the whole country into some sort of missile-themed amusement park? “Welcome to the Dnieper, folks! Step right up and take a ride on the Kinzhal coaster—height restrictions may apply!”
Buckle Up for Ballistics!
Launching those missiles from Astrakhan, home of the RS-26 Rubezh—sounds so cool! It kind of makes you want to add “Ballistic Missile Testing Ground” to your travel bucket list, doesn’t it? Meanwhile, the Dnieper is left to pick up the pieces. Ah, but fear not, the consequences were “no significant consequences”—as if a little missile has ever hurt anyone’s feelings, right? Now, can we take a moment to point out that the blasted missile *didn’t even have a warhead*? Makes you wonder if they’re trying to save on costs. “Look, we promise to deliver an explosive night, for now, we’ll just send a dove instead!”
What’s in a Name? More Confusion!
Now, let’s talk about names. So, Putin let slip the name of this magical missile: “Oreshnik.” Apparently, that translates to “hazel” in Russian. Why stop there? Why not call it the “Super-Duper Extradimensional Brain-Smasher”? But alas, Oreshnik it is. Ironically, in official Ukrainian sources, they swear it’s a Kedr missile. In other words, you can’t swing a cat without hitting a new missile name in this narrative!
The Real Motivation Behind the Madness
Now, what’s this missile madness all about? Putin expressed he is merely responding to “aggressive actions” from NATO countries. If that’s a *reaction*, imagine the mess a real punch-up would cause! It’s like being upset someone else is winning at chess when you’re the one playing the game with a banana. But honestly, I’d give the whole “dictatorial chess” metaphor a break. It’s more accurately a game of ‘Who Will Use It First?’ with nuclear weapons hanging in the balance!
Can They Shoot Those Things Down?
Now, here’s the burning question: can Ukraine shoot these new whizzy missiles down? Well, turns out, they’re looking for ways to intercept them like a dodgy high school quarterback searching for the perfect pass. The U.S. THAAD system offers some hope, but it’s as rare as finding a needle in a haystack. “Yes, yes, we could really use a THAAD system!” said every Ukrainian military official at least once this week. But it costs a fortune! A cool $3 billion? Might as well invest in a gold-plated coffee maker!
The Final Countdown! (Just Kidding)
So what’s next, you ask? A merry little dance of missile launches? Perhaps! Experts say a similar attack could pop off without the nuclear charge. You know, just to keep things spicy in the world theatre. Meanwhile, if the Russians really think their *pew pew* is terrifying enough to make the West back off, they better think again. Dictators thrive on theatrics, but when the rubber meets the road, let’s see how much *Gung-ho* they’re really willing to go!
So there you have it, folks! An explosive morning over the Dnieper, featuring missiles without warheads, the crazy world of nuclear posturing, and the high stakes of international diplomacy— served with a side of cheeky banter. Stay tuned for the next episode of “As the World Turns: Ballistic Missile Edition!”
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Strike on the Dnieper with new ballistics: what is known
On the morning of November 21, a significant missile assault was executed by Russian forces on the Dnieper River area, marking a notable escalation in hostilities. The attack involved the deployment of various advanced weaponry, including the aeroballistic Kinzhal, seven units of the X-101 missile (with six of these intercepted), and an intercontinental ballistic missile. Fortunately, the Air Force reported no major damages or casualties caused by this assault.
“There was a new type of missile launched by Russia. All parameters, such as speed and altitude, indicated it was intercontinental ballistic. Comprehensive examinations are currently underway. It’s clear that President Putin is utilizing Ukraine as an experimental field for his military advancements,” stated Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
The missile in question originated from the Astrakhan region, specifically from the Kapustin Yar training ground, where the RS-26 Rubezh complexes are stationed. These systems are engineered for nuclear strikes over distances up to 6000 km. Notably, the Dnieper is located approximately 800 km from Kapustin Yar, and the missile launched was without any warhead.
It is important to mention that this strike had been anticipated a day earlier, on November 20. Read more in material “New ballistics? What is known about the Russian RS-26 Rubezh missile and why they started talking about it.”
Photo: rescuers liquidate the consequences of the attack on the Dnieper on November 21 (facebook.com/MNSDNE)
Reports from both Ukrainian media and pro-Kremlin Z-channels speculated that the Dnieper was struck by a Rubezh missile. Sergei Lysak, the head of the Dnepropetrovsk regional military administration, confirmed that damage had occurred at an industrial facility, with Kremlin-aligned bloggers asserting that the Yuzhmash plant was targeted.
Footage purportedly documenting the attack surfaced on Telegram channels, showing six impacts in a matter of seconds. Each incident demonstrated the munitions dividing into multiple fragments, yet no substantial explosions were evident at the impact sites.
Peter Stano, spokesperson for the European Union, characterized the application of intercontinental ballistics as a troubling escalation in the ongoing conflict. He remarked that Putin appears to be intensifying nuclear threats. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed grave concern regarding this “terrible escalation” linked to the introduction of new armaments. Meanwhile, China urged all involved parties to “maintain calm and exercise restraint.”
Meanwhile, Kyiv is convening an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council at the ambassadorial level next Tuesday, November 26.
Western media sources, citing intelligence assessments, classify this missile as medium-range. However, this classification remains somewhat ambiguous. The RS-26 Rubezh is categorized by Western standards as a medium-range system with a range of up to 5500 km. In cases involving intercontinental ballistics, Moscow typically informs the United States to avoid triggering a retaliatory response, which was indeed adhered to during this occasion.
“Hazel” from Putin. What the Kremlin says
In an evening address, President Putin unveiled the name of the missile, causing a stir in military circles. He claimed that the Dnieper strike was a reaction to what he described as “aggressive actions from NATO nations,” specifically mentioning the ballistic ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile strikes in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
According to Putin, a modern Russian medium-range missile system was tested in combat conditions—this time equipped with a ballistic missile in non-nuclear hypersonic configuration. Our rocket scientists have designated it as “Oreshnik,” he stated, emphasizing its advanced capabilities.
Putin indicated that current defenses cannot effectively counteract systems like Oreshnik, as missiles can strike targets at speeds reaching Mach 10 (approximately 2.5-3 km per second). He asserted that contemporary Western missile defense frameworks lack the capacity to intercept such high-velocity projectiles.
Since information regarding this experimental weapon is scarce in open sources, estimates suggest a maximum range of around 5,500 km, as categorized under medium-range missiles by Russian standards. The Pentagon corroborated that Oreshnik’s foundational design likely stems from the RS-26 Rubezh.
Conversely, the Financial Times cites a senior military official from Ukraine, stating that the missile impacting the Dnieper was not Oreshnik but Rubezh. This difference in information underscores the ongoing confusion surrounding the missile’s true identity.
The peril associated with such a missile extends beyond just its speed; there remains uncertainty regarding its potential nuclear payload. The aeroballistic “Dagger,” for instance, can be modified to carry multiple small nuclear warheads. Military expert Pavel Narozhny elucidates that while much is speculative about Oreshnik, factual knowledge stems solely from Putin’s assertions.
“Cedar”, not “Hazel”. But there’s no difference
According to the official perspective from Ukraine, the assault on the Dnieper was conducted not by the RS-26 Rubezh or Oreshnik but instead is believed to have been executed using a ballistic missile from the Kedr complex. The missile traveled from the Astrakhan region to its target in a mere 15 minutes.
This particular missile is reported to have carried six warheads, with each containing an additional six submunitions. Its final trajectory speed is estimated to exceed Mach 11. The Kedr complex has undergone testing at Kapustin Yar as recently as October and June.
The increased uncertainty stems from the fact that this marks the third different name attributed to intercontinental ballistics within a short span. However, aligning with the Pentagon’s evaluations, it’s rational to conclude Kedr could represent an evolution of Rubezh, thus rendering the designation Oreshnik as somewhat redundant, as stated by Defense Express.
Photo: the Kedr rocket flew 800 km in 15 minutes (deepstatemap.live)
Russian media has mentioned Kedr’s development with different nuances. Early reports in 2021 indicated progress on a “new generation strategic complex” with this nomenclature, hinting it was designed to replace the existing Yars ICBM due to its mobile and less vulnerable nature.
The mobility of the Kedr complex offers strategic advantages, enabling launches to occur from virtually any location within Russia, thereby diminishing the risk of interception. There have been claims positing that the missile is optimized for a rapid ascent, after which its warhead descends towards its destination at an unprecedented speed of approximately Mach 28, purportedly maintaining a low altitude, posing a significant challenge to missile defense systems.
In contrast, Pavel Narozhny indicates that the Kedr missile achieves speeds up to Mach 11, outpacing the Dagger by a substantial margin. Kirill Budanov, head of military intelligence, remarked that as of October, Russia may possess “two or more” Kedr missile prototypes, revealing that “Hazel” represents merely a research initiative, whereas the missile system is officially known as “Kedr,” intended for nuclear capabilities.
Defense Express analysts posit that “Kedr” could serve as the umbrella term for a new missile system evolved from the Yars ICBM, suggesting a sophisticated interplay of lighter and heavier warheads for varying range capabilities. This interpretation indicates that “Cedar” may simultaneously embody “Hazel Tree” and “Boundary.”
Who is Putin threatening and why?
Putin’s recent address was explicitly directed towards Western nations, which have been supplying arms to Ukraine. Various foreign media outlets provided different interpretations of his statements.
The Associated Press quoted an expert declaring that the newly showcased missiles exceed all previously observed technology. Reuters heightened apprehensions regarding the strikes, while The New York Times highlighted that the missile might not align with the specifications touted by Putin.
In his address, Putin hinted that following the strikes on Russian territory using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, he retains the right to retaliate against targets in the USA, Great Britain, and France. “I advise the ruling elites in those countries considering deploying military force against Russia to think twice,” he warned.
Such declarations serve to intimidate Europe and the United States, specifically as they invest in capabilities for nuclear deployment, positioning Putin as a leader claiming to possess a new hypersonic missile equipped for nuclear strike.
Conversely, this threat seems aimed at pressuring the West into withdrawing support for Ukraine, as articulated by Narozhny.
“The essence of all dictatorial regimes is quite simple: observe my unpredictability and note that I possess formidable missile capacity. Putin employs this strategy, akin to Kim Jong-un and other dictators,” remarked the expert.
Yet, he emphasizes the absence of genuine nuclear strike threats using these missiles. Any attack on a Ukrainian city, even with tactical munitions, equates to a nuclear threat against Europe, complicating the potential consequences for Russia.
“Putin’s economic reliance on Europe, primarily through oil and gas sales, prohibits him from severing existing ties. Additionally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is firmly opposed to nuclear weapon utilization; thus, Putin finds himself significantly beholden to him,” the expert elaborated.
Will the strike be repeated and can Ukraine shoot down Kedr missiles?
Narozhny does not dismiss the possibility of a subsequent missile attack, albeit in a conventional capacity. This might not merely be another show of force but could involve genuine explosions rather than simulated threats. He notes, “The costs associated with such an assault could easily reach tens of millions of dollars.”
Photo: medium-range ballistics can be shot down by complexes like the American THAAD (defense.gov)
With an estimated warhead mass reaching 1.2 tons, the military rationale behind deploying such expensive ballistic missiles without a nuclear payload becomes questionable. Russia consistently launches multiple conventional munitions at various Ukrainian regions, resulting in a combined impact far exceeding that of any individual missile.
“When executing mass assaults utilizing 100 missiles, each capable of carrying up to 500 kg, and considering a 10% evasion rate through our defenses, the cumulative payload arriving translates to impactful destructive potential,” Narozhny elucidated.
Adding to the psychological pressure, the Kremlin announced that the Russian military is developing means to alert Ukrainian civilians of impending strikes. Putin suggested that should systems like Oreshnik be employed, civilians would be “actively and publicly” invited to vacate dangerous zones in advance.
“This tactic aims to direct Ukrainians towards Russian official channels, bombarding them with propaganda and fostering panic. It is crucial for recipients to rely solely on verified Ukrainian sources,” he cautioned.
Currently, Ukraine lacks systems capable of intercepting medium-range hypersonic ballistic projectiles. Georgy Tikhy, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, urged Western allies to consider supplying the necessary defensive systems. While concrete measures are being sought, specifics remain undisclosed at this time.
Given their rapid approach and the potential of numerous falling submunitions, the objective is to achieve extensive area coverage. Theoretically, intercepting missiles before they reach the terminal phase is plausible with systems like the American THAAD.
THAAD systems are designed for intercepting ballistic threats up to 200 km and altitudes ranging from 100 to 150 km; however, the likelihood of transferring such a system to Ukraine appears low due to prohibitive costs estimated at around $3 billion for a single unit.
“Additionally, we have not yet achieved the provision of even basic Patriot systems, which remain significantly less complex. Full coverage would require integrating THAAD to encompass all regional centers, a capability we currently lack,” the expert concluded.
In a related development, a source within the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff revealed that negotiations will commence with partners to procure THAAD-class weaponry or to upgrade Patriot systems for the capability to intercept medium-range ballistics.
When preparing the text, we used data from the Ukrainian Air Force, statements by President Vladimir Zelensky, insights from Kirill Budanov, various Western media analyses, contributions from Defense Express, and commentary by military expert Pavel Narozhny.
Why is it crucial for governments and organizations to maintain clear lines of communication during times of military escalation?
Warned, emphasizing the importance of communication in times of crisis.
The escalating tension marked by missile announcements and military posturing underscores the unpredictable nature of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Analysts caution that while the Kremlin’s rhetoric and advanced missile capabilities may serve to instill fear, true intentions remain delicate and subject to the realities of geopolitical relationships. With Western nations continuing to support Ukraine, the actions taken by both Russia and NATO in the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the future of the conflict.
Continued vigilance and assessment of missile technology, defense capabilities, and the potential for escalation or de-escalation in hostilities are crucial as the situation unfolds. Experts advise all parties involved to remain committed to dialog and diplomatic resolution amidst these complex military dynamics.