The planet is undergoing extensive demographic changes, which are slowing economic growth and increasing public debt, increasing the risk of medium-term financial instability and conflicts over the allocation of resources in many advanced economies, while increasing political and economic instability in many developing economies characterized by from low incomes. Different demographic developments around the world create economic and political challenges. Advanced (high-income) economies are characterized by very slow population growth, stagnant population levels, or even outright population decline, with Japan in 2011 experiencing its first decline in population levels. This in absolute numbers has led, in some cases, to a decline in the working age population. Meanwhile, high- and middle-income countries are undergoing very similar demographic changes, although they lag advanced economies by a decade or two.
However, their demographic transitions are often faster, mainly due to rapid declines in fertility rates, largely due to rising economic prosperity, rising levels of education, changes in cultural perceptions, and higher costs of raising children. despite increased income levels. In contrast, low-income economies and many lower- and middle-income (developing) economies are still characterized by rapid population growth and a rapid increase in the number of working-age people.
- The world population grew from 2.4 billion in 1950 to more than 8 billion in 2023. In the medium-term scenario, the United Nations predicts that the world population will reach 10.3 billion around 2080 and remain above 10 billion for the rest of the decade.
- The fertility (or replacement) rate describes the number of children a woman must have in order to “replace” herself by giving birth to one daughter, which is about 2.1 children per woman. A fertility rate of less than 2.1 will lead to a long-term population decline. Decades of below-replacement fertility rates in advanced economies have begun to translate into stagnant population levels or outright population decline.
- Other countries are experiencing population decline due to mass migration due to economic crises, civil war, or external armed conflicts, such as Syria (until recently) and Venezuela. Ukraine, already facing demographic challenges before a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, has lost an estimated 6-7 million people to Ukrainians fleeing the war.
Global demographic balances will continue to shift dramatically, with advanced and emerging economies aging rapidly amid slow population growth, stagnation or even decline, and developing economies experiencing rapid growth. Almost all advanced economies, such as those in East Asia and parts of Europe, have fertility rates below replacement level, which – without significant immigration – will lead or has led to stagnation or a decline in the working-age population. Meanwhile, North and Latin America will see modest increases in population growth over the next quarter century, according to UN forecasts. In contrast, Africa, including North Africa and West Asia, a region dominated by low-income and lower-middle-income countries, will see significant growth in the coming decades, including a sharp increase in the working-age population. In summary, all regions of the world except Africa, West Asia, and South Asia will experience population decline over the next two generations.
- Fertility rates have declined almost everywhere in recent decades, but differ significantly between high-, middle-, and low-income countries. In low-income countries, the fertility rate is 4.6 children per woman, in middle-income countries 2.1 (ranging from 2.6 in lower-middle-income countries to 1.5 in upper-middle-income countries) and 1.5 in high income countries. Geographically, the average fertility rate of African countries is above 4, ranging from 6.6 in Niger to 2.3 in South Africa. In contrast, fertility rates are below replacement in Asia (1.9), North America (1.8) and Europe (1.5). In Asia, the rate ranges from 2.9 in Central Asia to 1.2 in East Asia.
- By 2050, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will be 2.1 billion (up from 1.2 billion today), Latin America 730 million (660 million today), North America 430 million (390 million today), South Asia 2 .5 billion (2.1 billion today), Western Europe 112 million (125 million today), North Africa 370 million (270 million today), and East Asia 1.5 billion (1.7 billion today).
- The total fertility rate in a given year is defined as the number of children that would be born to each woman if she lived to the end of her reproductive age and gave birth to children in line with age-prevailing fertility rates. In other words, the fertility rate is an unestimated variable.
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#Stratfor #Demographic #Analysis #Developed #Countries #Aging
