If elected U.S. president in November, Kamala Harris, will likely seek to maintain support for Ukraine at roughly current levels well into 2025, however, developments on the battlefield and more aggressive Russian actions against the West could lead to greater US support for Kiev or, in less likely scenarios, pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace deal or a wider NATO-Russia conflict.
During her speech at the Democratic National Convention on August 22, Harris advocated continued military and economic support for Ukraine and criticized Republican nominee Donald Trump’s stance on the issue, saying that “Trump has encouraged Putin to invade to our allies… As president, I will stand by Ukraine and our NATO allies.” Her comments on Ukraine contrasted sharply with those Trump made in the Sept. 10 presidential debate with Harris, where he twice declined to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war, arguing that the United States was “playing with Third World War”.
Trump also repeated his claim that he could quickly negotiate an end to the war, saying “I’ll talk to one, I’ll talk to the other, I’ll bring them together,” referring to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. Harris responded that “the reason Donald Trump is saying this war would end in 24 hours is because he would just give it up.” Harris’ decision to emphasize continued support for Ukraine should she win the election may be in part aimed at attracting foreign-policy voters, as polls continue to show a majority of Americans in favor of keeping or the increase in support for Ukraine, a trend that has not stopped since the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022.
In contrast with the perception that Harris will simply continue the same policy as current President Joe Biden on Ukraine, new officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration’s policy. A Harris administration’s policies toward Ukraine and Russia will likely initially mirror those of the current administration, with Harris seeking to continue economic and military aid while focusing on minimizing escalation so as not to draw the US and NATO into open conflict with Russia. Harris’s Ukraine strategy will likely rely heavily on input from her top advisers, most notably national security adviser Philip Gordon and, to a lesser extent, deputy national security adviser Rebecca Friedman Lissner. Finally, the course of the war itself will likely influence the policy of the next White House, because if the situation on the battlefield suddenly changes, Western powers could be forced to step up support for Ukraine or seek negotiations with Russia .
In this context, there are four main scenarios for how the Harris administration could affect the war in Ukraine in 2025 (and beyond):
- Scenario #1 (possible): The United States maintains support for Ukraine, but does not significantly increase it, and the war continues at its current intensity.
In this scenario, a Harris administration in 2025 would maintain military and economic aid to Ukraine through a supplemental aid package of about $60 billion, similar in size and scope to what Congress passed in 2024. But a combination of factors – including the White House’s fear of further escalation with Russia, concerns about preparedness in the Indo-Pacific to deter China or manage sudden crises in other regions, such as the Middle East, and ongoing disagreements within the US of Congress and actions taken late in the Biden administration’s term (such as passing a 2025 aid package and easing restrictions on the use of Ukrainian arms supplies)—means that the Harris administration will not substantially increase support for Kiev beyond the level of the previous government. Ukraine still receives enough weapons to prevent a rapid Russian advance, Russia, however, continues to gain ground and increase its negotiating influence. Various peace summits are taking place throughout the year, possibly including direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials to establish some limits on the war, such as attacks on energy infrastructure and merchant ships. However, meaningful negotiations towards an end to the war do not begin.
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