Stratfor Analysis: The Risks for Paris in the Olympics 2024-03-05 00:04:37

Paris will host the 2024 Olympic Games between July 26 and August 11. The event will attract global attention, as well as millions of visitors to the French capital, creating significant security challenges, including opportunistic crime against visitors and a variety of potential protests, particularly due to recent political instability in the country.

ALTHOUGH PARIS generally considered a safe destination for foreign travelers, visitors will likely face increased risks of opportunistic and possibly other crime during the Olympics as criminals look to take advantage of the large crowds that will gather in the city. Opportunistic crime such as pickpocketing, mugging and fraud is quite common in Paris and with more than 15 million visitors expected in the city for the Olympics, these crimes are set to increase throughout the three weeks of the Games. Several studies of previous Olympics show a large increase in such crimes.

ALTHOUGH IN CRIMES these do not usually involve violence, visitors should exercise increased caution in peripheral and economically deprived areas, high-traffic areas (e.g. subway and train stations), and more isolated areas in the city center (e.g. parks and waterfronts), where violent crime is more likely after dark. Thugs in the city also occasionally carry out armed robberies or use motorcycles to commit robberies. The risks of injury during armed or violent robberies are usually increased if the victims do not comply with the demands of the perpetrators.

More generally, other property crimes such as car theft, carjacking and residential burglary also occur regularly in Paris and may affect foreign travellers. Should travelers require assistance from law enforcement, the French Police and security forces are well trained and equipped, although they do not always speak English. However, their response times during the Games may be slower as the city will be overloaded with the large number of visitors.

THE BIG publicity of the event may motivate the unions and the various movements to organize strike mobilizations and demonstrations that could lead to the disruption of transport, material damage and sporadic violence. France has a history of strikes and mass protests related to various socioeconomic issues, and demonstrations, large public gatherings, and various other forms of protest are common, especially in Paris. While the majority of protests in France are usually peaceful, in the capital several large and important protest movements, activists and trade unions from across the ideological spectrum regularly engage in demonstrations that disrupt travel and business across the city. Although generally temporary, transport disruptions, strikes and street violence occur frequently and can sometimes be prolonged.

THE WORKERS trade unions, as well as various unions – from disgruntled farmers to environmental or pro-Palestinian groups – may try to take advantage of the – global and high profile – event to exert pressure or increase their power in negotiations with the government by organizing demonstrations and strikes which will cause disturbance. As recently as January 2024, French farmers “locked down” the area around Paris, blocking major highways around the capital, protesting agricultural and environmental policies, with protests threatening to escalate until government concessions in early February managed to quell the protests. Although the government will maintain a negotiating stance towards farming unions to avoid inflaming anti-establishment parties ahead of the European Parliament elections in early June and/or the disruption of the Olympic Games later that month, a possible breakdown in negotiations may lead to a repeat of the demonstrations and possible significant disruption of the event.

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THE CONTINUED war in Gaza, recent government spending cuts on climate and green energy measures, and various potential grievances from labor unions may also lead to some form of protest during the Olympics, although previous such mobilizations suggest that they will likely have significantly less impact compared to potential peasant mobilizations. Travelers should therefore monitor for information on planned protests and generally be aware of any controversial, major events or political developments prior to the Games that may cause protests and social unrest during the Games.

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