2023-10-11 19:28:00
Volodymyr Zelensky visited NATO headquarters this Wednesday, a first since the Russian invasion. He is due to take part in a meeting of the organization’s defense ministers and said his visit to NATO was key to organizing Ukraine’s “resilience” this winter, with the country fearing a new Russian bombing campaign against its energy infrastructure.
He also met the Belgian government with discussions on the possible delivery of F16s, the release of frozen Russian funds and the blocking of Russian diamonds. “We need the support of leaders, that’s why I’m here,” he declared, having said the day before that he was worried about the consequences of the war between Israel and Hamas on the contribution of allies to his country. . “Western support is crucial for Ukraine,” says Kris Quanten, professor of military history at the Royal Military School (ERM). This is why Zelensky shows up everywhere, he wants to maintain this material and financial support is the umbilical cord for them. If we cut it, we know very well that Ukraine will not be able to continue its operations. And Putin knows it too. That is why he is trying by all means to weaken Western aid. He is convinced that there will be other failures like in Poland.”
A real risk of frozen conflict
For the expert, the Russian strategy is very clear: to prolong the war as long as possible, knowing that long-term supply will become more and more complex while its army draws on greater human resources than on the Ukrainian side.
Is Belgium endangering its own security by sending F-16s to Ukraine?
Despite financial sanctions, the Russian war economy continues to operate and produce. Putin therefore has every interest in not reaching an agreement in the short term. However, are we at risk of witnessing a frozen conflict which is likely to last for several more years? “It’s a scenario that exists and is likely to happen when we know that one of the two parties is counting on it,” he continues. “Ukraine wants the complete opposite but it does not have the means to impose its will . Today, reconquering the entire territory is surely too ambitious and seems unlikely. This is why we risk evolving towards a frozen conflict. We can also wonder if the West can and wishes to maintain its support knowing that other crises arise, we think in particular of the price of oil, gas and the problems posed by wheat. We have the strong impression that Putin is playing on this.”
Delay in the delivery of our F-35s
While our first two F-35s were supposed to be ready by the end of the year, the schedule was delayed due to software updates. A problem with certification of the latest technological developments is at the origin of these delays. They should arrive in May 2024 if everything goes as planned. “There has been no official announcement of a new delay. They even said that this delay could be made up. We will therefore not be beyond a period of 3 to 6 months”, specifies the Minister Dedonder. In the process, four to five F-35s per year will be delivered between 2024 and 2030, so that the 34 aircraft should be delivered in 2030, in accordance with the initial plan. Following the $4.5 billion contract for the purchase of 34 F-35s, Belgium signed an agreement with the manufacturer of the F-35 to allow its manufacturers to compete in production chain markets. .
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