2024-01-13 07:13:13
Freezing Western aid and seeking to build a domestic defense industry are putting pressure on Ukraine’s options
As the Ukrainian-Russian war continues, which is about to enter its third year next month, the decreasing Western military supplies to Ukraine are putting pressure on Kiev’s political and military options, in exchange for Moscow’s insistence on continuing its war, until the goals of its “military operation” are achieved.
In the United States, with President Joe Biden’s request for more aid to Ukraine faltering in Congress, the opportunities for him to maneuver to exchange his request for Republican conditions have become narrower, amid the Pentagon’s warning that the remaining funds to aid Ukraine are close to running out, with only $4.5 billion remaining. .
In Europe, the pledge to provide one million artillery shells within 12 months failed, as only about 300,000 have been delivered so far, in reference to the difficulties it faces in increasing its military production, in exchange for Russia’s “success” in transforming its economy into a war economy. The European Union also failed to approve its military and economic aid package for Ukraine, due to opposition from Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin last October (EPA)
Kyiv’s options are narrowing
However, the Russian attacks on Ukraine continued, as missiles and drones that Moscow obtained supplies from North Korea and Iran, according to American and Western accusations, struck several Ukrainian cities, causing human and material damage to the infrastructure. Ukraine’s options also seemed to be narrowing, in light of mounting speculation about talks to set “achievable” political and military goals, and its efforts to break free from its dependence on Western supplies, by strengthening and developing its local defense industry, and working in joint projects with foreign governments to manufacture more ammunition and weapons on the ground. Its lands. However, Ukrainian officials realize that achieving this goal is difficult and takes time.
A Ukrainian soldier during military training near the city of Kiev (Archyde.com)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that although his country was able to stop the Russian army, it urgently needs Western allies to send more air defense systems to shoot down an increasing barrage of incoming Russian drones and missiles. Zelensky warned that “any pause” by his country in defending itself against the Russian invasion would help Moscow to rearm and “crush us.”
Even the aid that Britain promised to provide to Ukraine, during its Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s surprise visit to Kiev on Friday, does not seem sufficient to meet the country’s voracious need for ammunition and equipment in its war with Russia. Sunak pledged to increase military funding by about $260 million, to $3.25 billion, in confirmation of his commitment to Kiev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements, Thursday, during a meeting with businessmen from the Far East, about the strength of the Russian economy, increased Europeans’ concerns about his intentions, especially after directing his country’s economy to transform into a war economy, also pointing to the role played by “the failure of the sanctions policy.” » In forcing Putin to change his plans.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presents the Medal of Freedom to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Friday in Kiev (EPA)
Putin said that his country has surpassed Germany and has become the first economy in Europe and the fifth in the world, explaining that the growth of the Russian economy by the end of 2023 may be higher than the expected rate of 3.5 percent. Putin noted that “this is an amazing result” under conditions of external pressure.
Putin faces a triple dilemma
But the Russian President’s boast of this “expected result” does not reflect the actual situation of the Russian economy, according to a report in Foreign Affairs magazine. She said that instead of indicating the health of the economy, these numbers indicate “overactivity.” The report added: “In fact, the problems facing the Russian economy have reached such an extent that Putin faces an impossible triple dilemma”: financing his ongoing war against Ukraine, maintaining the living standards of his people, and protecting macroeconomic stability. Achieving the first and second goals will require an increase in spending, which will fuel inflation, thus preventing the third goal from being achieved.
The report pointed out that despite the high oil and gas revenues, skillful financial management by the Russian authorities, and lax application of Western restrictions, which played their role in economic growth in Russia, they hide the growing imbalances in this economy. With Putin not mentioning that more than a third of Russia’s growth was due to war, Russia’s bright economic landscape in 2023 masked dangerous trade-offs made in the pursuit of short-term gains.
Even if Moscow’s financial leadership succeeds in calming the economy by the end of 2024, major problems resulting from the war are inevitable. These factors include dissatisfaction with the lack of funding for public health, the growing shortage of tools and equipment due to the tightening of the sanctions regime, and major disruptions caused by the huge investment in the defense industry, which will lead to future generations paying a heavy price for the current situation, even though this is the last thing on their minds. Where is the Kremlin at the moment?
Confiscation of Russian assets
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday described the US plan to confiscate up to $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to help rebuild Ukraine as “piracy of the 21st century.” She said Moscow would respond strongly if that happened. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the United States of trying to create a “legal cover” to steal Russian sovereign assets, a move that Moscow has repeatedly warned would violate international law and undermine the global financial system.
“The theft of state property, private and public property has become a registered trademark of the Anglo-Saxons,” Zakharova said in a press conference. She added: “Washington (and) London have been doing this for decades. Before that it was called piracy, but then it was legalized. Now it is 21st century piracy in my opinion.”
A Bloomberg report published on Wednesday stated that the administration of US President Joe Biden supports legislation that would allow it to confiscate some frozen Russian assets in order to help rebuild Ukraine, parts of which have fallen into ruins after Moscow sent its army there in February. ) 2022.
Zakharova, who accused Washington of trying to persuade the European Union to sign up to the same asset confiscation plan, said Moscow would respond strongly if its assets were stolen. “Retaliatory measures will be taken, and they will be clear enough to be seen and felt,” she added. “It will be painful.” Zakharova said that the West is now seeking to find new ways to finance Ukraine due to the increasing difficulties in securing financial support for Kiev.
The White House said on Thursday that US aid to Ukraine had “completely stopped” as negotiations continued in Washington on an aid package that could be linked to a comprehensive reform of border security procedures.
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