2023-11-06 11:06:00
After a particularly eventful week marked by the passage of storm Ciaran – which caused two deaths in Belgium – and the – more limited – effects of storm Domingos, this week promises to be calmer. But we shouldn’t count on the return of big, beautiful sunshine. The low pressure flow which reinforced the windy episodes of the last few days is still very active in our country and will further influence our weather in the weeks to come.
And you will still have to be wary of the wind, moreover. “It will be calmer than last week, but we still expect quite a bit of wind until Wednesday,” warns Pascal Mormal, meteorologist at IRM. Windy activity will remain significant with gusts up to 70 or 80 km/h at the coast. But what you need to be most careful about is the rain.”
No, Belgium is not done with storms: “The low pressure flow is well established”
Since mid-October, the weather has been very humid in Belgium, and the soils are starting to become waterlogged. “We are still expecting up to 35 liters per square meter in the coming hours, especially at the coast. Since October 12, we have experienced a very rainy streak in Belgium. In 25 days, for example, we recorded up to 284 liters per square meter in certain Ardennes valleys, 211 liters in Knokke or even more than 200 in Poperinge. It’s sometimes more than triple the normal rate, he says. In Uccle, the IRM reference station, there were 23 days of rain in 25 days and 100 liters per square meter over the period instead of 50, on average.”
The fault therefore lies in this oceanic flow which does not seem to want to leave the region. “It arrived after a long anticyclonic period which had caused the September heat wave and very dry weather, until mid-October,” he recalls. For this week and next week, we will stay with humid weather and seasonal temperatures. It will perhaps be a little cooler on Friday and Saturday, but we are still far from the first frosts.”
Pascal Mormal, the meteorologist who calls the shots: “Even the weather has become political”
Because if the maxima are completely average, the minima are very gentle. “We shouldn’t expect frost until November 20, at least. Seasonal models always predict a mild start to winter, and this is confirmed the closer we get to it.”
As a reminder, Pascal Mormal mentioned a few days ago in our columns an important positive anomaly for the coming winter. “One to two degrees is still a significant anomaly,” says Pascal Mormal. It is a priori the month of December which promises to be milder, the mildness at this stage seems less marked for January and February. […] This is quite worrying, we must not forget it. Since 2013, we haven’t had a remotely cold winter. There were a few episodes of snow and one or another cold week, but nothing that changed the averages. We are very far from the winters of the 1970s or 1980s.”
Weather: is winter expected to be harsh in Belgium? “It’s quite worrying”
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