2023-10-25 01:06:00
Dollars traded on the stock market fell below 900 pesos.
The Argentine stock market operated with marked price instability this Tuesday, before another short profit taking following a bullish start and following a black Monday where historic losses were recorded due to the unexpected victory of the government in the first round of the presidential race.
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For its part, the dollar remained at its highs in the “blue” market, but cut positions in its financial variants – where they remained below 900 pesos – and also in the futures markets, where there were drops of up to 12% in the contracts for 2024.
The interbank dollar ended balanced at 349.95 pesos, fixed since last August 14 thanks to the actions of the BCRA, and the influential informal or “blue” round remained stabilized at a record of 1,100 pesos, with an exchange gap of 214, 3%, the highest since 1989.
The Government maintains controls and threatens more raids in the financial center of the Argentine capital to discourage illegal businesses such as with the “blue” since it considers that they conspire with its electoral desires.
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The MEP dollar fell to $868.23, with a fall of 78.22 pesos or 8.3%, with the Bonar 2030 (AL30D) at 48 hours, the most used title and which this Tuesday had business for USD 24.8 million, down from USD 38 million on Monday. In this PPT (Priority Price Time) segment, the BCRA has intervened intensively since last April 28 to put a ceiling on the currency.
“The market was strongly dollarized before the elections because Milei was looking to win, but now with its loss of prominence there are investors who resume positions in pesos following assimilating the natural surprise that we had yesterday (Monday) in stocks and bonds,” he explained to Archyde.com. the financial consultant Marcelo Rojas.
Analysts told Archyde.com that the new scenario dissipates fears of a sharp devaluation of the peso, while the probability that the country abandons its currency in the short term fades.
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“After the overshooting (overreaction) that accelerated the dollarization process, a temporary greater calm is observed in the cash and futures, seeking to quickly readjust to a scenario of greater stability until the ballot, also hand in hand with a supply of foreign currency from exports following the differential exchange rate announced for 30 days,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
“This greater tranquility, which comes as a respite following an overreaction and ‘panic dollar’ levels, is also transferred to financial dollars, a trend that might extend in the short term beyond that as the crisis approaches runoff, the search for coverage should be intensified,” he estimated.
The Ministry of Economy on Monday extended to all sectors of the export complex a benefit to liquidate part of the foreign currency obtained from its sales at an exchange rate higher than the official parity, with the aim of encouraging transactions that can increase meager reserves. currency.
“The BCRA bought once more today in the exchange market, where it absorbed 42 million dollars,” commented operator Gustavo Quintana, from PR Corredores de Cambio and pointed out that now “October sales are now at regarding 621 million dollars.” ”.
In this framework, the BCRA will not impose variations in its monetary policy for now, two sources with knowledge of the governing entity’s decisions agreed with Archyde.com, following Massa’s surprise victory and the growing possibilities that he will become the next president from minister. .
The leading stocks lost a strong 6.7% on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, following gaining 4.7% in the first part of the session and following collapsing an unexpected 12.4% on Monday. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds They lost 1.2% in their average in pesos, following 5% the day before. In contrast, among the shares and ADRs of Argentine companies operated in dollars in New York there was a mixed closing.
Source: Rava Bursátil-prices in dollars.
However, Global bonds rebounded a strong 3.8% in dollars on average on Wall Street, with a JP Morgan country risk that fell 116 units, to 2,496 basis points at 6:30 p.m.
“We continue to navigate uncertain waters. Beyond the result of the general elections, what is clear – or at least, it is one of the market’s first conclusions – is that the expectation of an imminent devaluation is cleared,” said Santiago Abdala, analyst at Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
The Minister of Economy Sergio Massa, defender of the peso as currency, clearly prevailed over the libertarian Javier Milei, favorite in pre-election polls along with his proposals to dollarize the economy and eliminate the Central Bank.
Now, both will define the position of President of the Nation in a second round scheduled for November 19, leaving the coalition led by Patricia Bullrich, the favorite of the financial market, off the radar.
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