2024-03-19 07:20:00
Our top picks are BCH and BDMS, which are leaders in the Thai patient market. We expect core business profits this year to grow 20% and 11%, respectively.
Revenue growth from Thai patients is higher than
We expect CHG’s profits to grow 22% yoy this year, BCH +20%, BDMS +11%, and BH +2%. We expect total Thai patient income to increase 8%, compared to national patient income increasing only. 6% (Fig. 2)
Part of Thai patient income increased from SSO…
SSO increased the quota for BCH by 20% to 1.86 million this year and CHG by 13% to 0.64 million, which we expect will result in a 4% increase in registrants for BCH (1.06 million) and 8%. For CHG (0.57 million people), SSO has also increased the lump sum payment to 1,808 baht/person/year, effective May 1, 2023, from 1,640 baht, and covers more prevention and treatment (such as sleep apnea (maximum 27,000 baht/case), 515 program (15,000 baht/DRG from 12,000 baht/DRG), mobile dental service (900 baht/person/year), cell transplantation to treat blood cancer (maximum 1.3 million baht/case ) and increase the frequency of 4 health checkups from every 3 years to every year (Fig. 3) for insured persons aged 35-50 years, which will increase car income to 825 baht/person from 410 baht/person.
…and seasonal diseases that come earlier than usual
The number of cases of influenza, dengue fever, and hand-foot-mouth disease in 2M24 was 139%, 94%, and 7% higher than in 1Q23, respectively. It is also higher than the 5-year median. The Department of Disease Control expects the number of dengue fever patients this year to increase by 77%, but Influenza patients will decrease by 25% (Fig. 5). We expect Thai patient income to grow 15% yoy to 9 billion baht for CHG, 13% to 11 billion baht for BCH and 7% for BDMS (to 75 billion baht). billion baht) and BH (9 billion baht)
Foreign patient income will slow in 1Q24.
Because (i) Middle East patients will decrease during Ramadan (21 days in 1Q24 vs. just 10 days in 1Q23), BH will be the most affected as revenue from Middle East patients reaches 27% of revenue; got a hospital (Fig. 14) and (ii) the Kuwait government got
Temporarily suspend sending patients to Thailand to check services. This will have the greatest impact on BH because Kuwaiti patient income accounts for 6% of hospital revenue (Fig. 15). We estimate foreign patient income of universe stocks. Ours accounted for 32% of hospital revenue in FY24F (67% for BH, 27% for BDMS, 17% for BCH and 4% for CHG).
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