2024-09-05 05:55:00
This Thursday the ministerial crisis enters its 60th day. Thus, Emmanuel Macron has still not found a new Prime Minister. The puzzle continues, the new leader is Michel Barnier, who succeeds the choice of Xavier Bertrand.
one” Method Error » and a “ Basic Questions », commented on his predecessor François Hollande on Wednesday evening on TMC. ” In terms of approach, Macron believes he will personally address governance issues. This is a mistake, decided by the National Assembly », which trained the former president.
Before highlighting A fundamental problem » : « Emmanuel Macron does not want to change policy ” wait” What is holding back is the question of how far the prime minister can take the questioning. » He continued, referring to the reforms that the president has accomplished since 2017.
Bertrand and Cazeneuve’s tracks disconnected
But the ability not to be immediately overturned by a motion of censure, as well as the grounds for rejecting the nomination of the new Popular Front candidate Lucie Castets, remains on the agenda. This criterion could overcome the assumptions of Xavier Bertrand and Bernard Cazeneuve, whose names were mentioned at the Elysee Palace on Tuesday evening.
Several members of the president’s camp spoke of “ Anti-Bertrand Front » He openly opposes this appointment in Macron, which on Wednesday will most likely appoint the president of the Hauts-de-France region, a member of the Republicans and a supporter of social rights. The National Rally and the New Popular Front in fact threaten to review it immediately. ” Bertrand is 100% likely dead », a ministerial adviser noted, “ Because he will never get a majority on any text ».
Former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who left amid uncertainty over whether he had the approval of the PS, was fired by Emmanuel Macron because he wanted to stay ” In his boots » A Macronist executive believes that there will be no immediate search for compromise with the centre on the left-wing program.
While the Cazeneuve-to-Matignon hypothesis has divided opinion in his party, PS boss Olivier Faure has expressed strong reservations about the possibility. It would be “ A form of abnormality ” choose” The only person on the left who opposed the Popular Front », he judges on TF1.
New choice: Michel Barnier, former Chirac minister
So, start all over again? On Wednesday night, the name of Michel Barnier, 73, who was also Jacques Chirac’s foreign minister and the EU’s Brexit negotiator, kept coming up.
According to a minister who resigned, the Elysee Palace spoke to him during the day when others praised his profile ” Less split ” wait” More consensus ». « He is popular with the right wing MPs but does not irritate the left wing MPs. If Xavier Bertrand is really in trouble, I can’t see any other way except his way. », she slipped.
Michel Barnier, who, like Xavier Bertrand, participated in the 2021 right-wing primary, has been among the names that the president has listed before some interlocutors since the summer.
« Rising anger »
The head of state is under pressure from all sides to make a choice, nearly three months after he personally caused the dissolution on June 9.” The longer it takes, the more catastrophic it will be. Anger is rising. People are asking when we will start work. Action is urgently needed or the streets will take over », warned the boss of the centrist group Liot Stéphane Lenormand. Also on Saturday, a demonstration is planned in Paris against ” Macron’s coup » At the call of several student organizations, La France insoumise, PCF and even andEcologist.
On the left side of the political spectrum, the Insuomi family – who on Tuesday refused to speak to the President of the Republic again – continue to affirm that they will vet any prime minister other than Lucie Castex. “If he could name himself and exist with himself, he would do so”The leader of the LFI, Mathilde Panot, scoffed on Tuesday that the party submitted a motion to remove the head of state to the National Assembly office.
Budget to be finalized in less than a month
The president is also under great pressure on the economy.Egypt Budget 2025 The French bill must be submitted to parliament on October 1. On August 20, in response to this issue, “Ensuring the continuity of the country”Gabriel Attal, the resigning prime minister, has set credit limits for ministers until 2025 for each ministry. “Letters on the Ceiling”so that they can start preparing their budget.
These financial envelopes combine all ministries and calculate 2024 spending (492 billion euros) to the nearest 2025 euro. According to Matignon, this would save around 10 billion euros by not indexing it to inflation, which is forecast to be around 2% next year. “Reversible”Gabriel Attal designated, because the new government will be able to make adjustments as it wishes before the deadline for submitting the 2025 budget.
Please note: In this budget, Matignon’s current tenants plan to make significant cuts to the Ministry of Ecological Transition (Green Fund and Electrification of Electric Vehicles) and the Ministry of Labor (Learning Aid). This prospect makes the ministers concerned cringe, especially Christophe Béchu in the field of ecological transition.
Deficit Red Alert
To make matters worse, pressure mounted again on Monday night when Bercy sounded a new red alert about France’s deficit. According to a document sent by Bercy to elected officials on the National Assembly’s finance committee, the deficit is expected to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2024 and could eventually reach 5.6% this year if policies remain unchanged.
For Bruno Le Maire and Thomas Cazeneuve, the decline is linked to two main factors: a surge in spending by local authorities – even if their representatives strongly oppose this fact – and forecasts of tax revenues, which may not exist. “Given the evolution of the composition of growth, it is not good for tax revenues. ».
The first consequence, according to the resigned economy and budget ministers, is that additional costs for the communities could increase as a result. “Revise 2024 accounts downward by 16 billion euros” Compared to the deficit trajectory sent to Brussels in the spring.
That’s not all: YouA confidential note sent to ministers by the Treasury this summer estimated that more than 100 billion euros would have to be invested in public finances by 2028. The goal is to respect European rules and to keep the public deficit below 3%.
Moreover, the Treasury warned that if no action is taken, the deficit will continue to widen dramatically: to 5.6% of GDP by the end of this year, then to 6.2% by 2025 and stabilizing at 6.5% by 2027… « The next government must adopt a clear and determined public finance strategy to maintain the confidence of markets and European partners. », he warned.
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