2023-08-25 05:34:00
The President of the Republic is formal: the executive maintains the course of full employment. However, the target will not be easy to reach…
© @Elodie Gregoire / Elodie Gregoire
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« JI cannot be satisfied with an unemployment rate of 7%! In his exclusive interview given to Point, Emmanuel Macron is categorical: the government’s objective of full employment has not been forgotten. However, this is not the time for rejoicing. According to the latest figures from INSEE, unemployment rose slightly to 7.2%. Still very far from the rate of 5% hoped for at the end of the five-year term…
According to expert forecasts, reaching this target will not be an easy task. “We must certainly have ambitious policy objectives, but for the moment, we cannot hope for a significant decline in unemployment,” said Éric Heyer, director of the analysis and forecasting department of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). .
READ ALSOFabien Roussel: “The great wealth of France is that resulting from work” According to the forecasts of its institute, unemployment should reach 7.4% by the end of the year, then 7.9% at the end of 2024. A little more optimistic, INSEE expects stabilization in 2023. The Bank de France also expects a plateau in 2023, before an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.4% in 2024 and 7.6% in 2025. The institute for economic studies Rexecode, which has tackled the financial year until 2027, anticipates a stagnation in unemployment.
Growth enriched in employment
Yet France seemed on a good path since the start of the first five-year term, similar to that followed by its neighbors who have reached full employment. “In addition to a favorable economic situation, the various reforms carried out since 2015 – El Khomri and Pénicaud laws, CICE, unemployment insurance reform, etc. – have enriched employment growth, underlines Olivier Redoules, director of studies at Rexecode. Some delayed effects might still be felt. »
READ ALSOThe 5 key points of our great explanation with Emmanuel Macron
The Covid crisis had certainly caused unemployment to rise briefly, before a sharp decline, thanks to dynamic job creation despite a sluggish economic situation. “Employment resisted in an extraordinary way during the Covid crisis, when we should have witnessed the destruction of jobs, because productivity gains were negative, which further enriched employment growth”, recalls Eric Heyer.
But the party seems regarding to end. If forecasters are counting on less dynamic job creation, it is partly because of the slowdown in activity – the government forecasts only 1% growth this year – but not only…
Training and housing
“Productivity gains should become positive once more and therefore more growth will be needed to create jobs,” says Éric Heyer. According to the economist, many indices argue that this “anomaly” is only cyclical and due to the reduction in working hours due to soaring absenteeism or to zombie companies saved from bankruptcy thanks to the ” no matter what”…
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It remains to be seen whether the reforms already implemented or announced by the government, such as those of unemployment insurance or France Travail – the latter being still rather vague for the moment – will reverse the situation. In any case, they risk not being sufficient, because the problem of unemployment and recruitment difficulties still require other treatment.
“We must work on simple pairing, that is to say bringing people into contact, but also training, mobility, housing, on a micro scale, territory by territory, in an effort to reindustrialise”, proposes Olivier Redoules. Come on, four more years to act!
To find our interview with Emmanuel Macron in 5 parts:
1/5: Emmanuel Macron: “On the school, we must get out of French hypocrisies”
2/5: Emmanuel Macron: “I will speak to Vladimir Putin once more when it is useful”
3/5: Emmanuel Macron: “I cannot be satisfied with an unemployment rate of 7%! »
4/5: Emmanuel Macron: “We must work to recivilize”
5/5: Emmanuel Macron: “I will preside until the last quarter of an hour”
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