The Uncertain Future of European Security and the War in Ukraine
The twilight of the Ukraine war presents Europe with a series of interconnected dilemmas: how to secure a lasting peace while protecting its own security interests. While Ukrainians will ultimately decide when and under what conditions they are prepared to endorse a peaceful resolution, the European Union’s role in shaping a sustainable outcome remains crucial.
Europeans must grapple with three interconnected questions: what are their core security interests in a post-war Europe?
Understanding Europe’s Evolving Security Landscape
The war in Ukraine has shattered the post-Cold War European security architecture. Russia will remain a significant security challenge for years to come, even if it is ultimately compelled to withdraw from occupied territories. Moscow will continue to pose a direct or indirect threat to Europe in numerous domains, from the Arctic and the Baltic to the Black Sea. It will leverage its hybrid toolkit of cyberattacks, the acquisition of new strategic territories elsewhere, election interference, and traditional military maneuvers to exert pressure on Europe’s neighbours and test the transatlantic alliance.
While the war itself will inadvertently contribute to Russia’s military drawdown in the immediate future, senior military figures anticipate that within five to seven years
Russia will have reconstituted its conventional offensive capabilities. A Russia controlling even a portion of Ukrainian territory while forcibly integrating Belarus into its sphere of influence raises significant anxieties. This is compounded by the decay of traditional tools for managing European security, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe becoming dysfunctional, and arms control treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty – all technically dead letter.
Europeans must clearly identify these emerging threats and develop robust responses. This requires considering military responses as well as creating deconfliction and transparency mechanisms. However, persuading Russia to engage in such initiatives will demand urging Moscow to acknowledge that its own security interests are intertwined with European stability and that breakthroughs are a shared responsibility.
Defining Ideal Security For Ukraine
Engaging in reflections of a picture of a lasting peace that aligns with European security will necessitate addressing various complex aspects. Crucially, any peace settlement must be accepted by the Ukrainian people and not lead to domestic instability.
Furthermore, a successful
peace deal needs to guarantee both the security and economic viability of Ukraine. Returning refugees need to feel secure enough to return and help rebuild their country, while international investors must feel confident about supporting Ukraine’s economic rebirth and development program. The country needs to build robust military and industrial capacities to defend itself and nurture a flourishing economy amongst regional security challenges.
The real question
is what kind of security compounds Europe is able to offer Ukraine beyond the pledges it made after the NATO summit in Vilnius. Genuine security guarantees are crucial to deter any future Russian aggression and encourage Ukrainians to rebuild their homeland.
The opposite – a Ukraine exhausted and facing mass emigration – poses significant challenges. Unfortified stability in Ukraine
is not in the EU’s interest.
Three potential models warrant consideration:
-
The "porcupine model": Arming Ukraine to the point where it can effectively deter further Russian aggression. While potent, this model would be costly and raise questions about long-term political sustainability.
- The "Korean model": Entailing the
presence of Western troops in Ukraine to prevent future conflicts. Such a presence would need to be robust and multi-national, and any deployment will face complex political questions related to command and control structures, especially with the US.
- The “West German Model”: Ukraine joining NATO even without controlling its entire territory. This provides the strongest signal and
What are the potential long-term security implications for Europe, even if a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in the war in Ukraine?
## A Conversation on the Uncertain Future of European Security
**Interviewer:** Welcome to the show! Today, we’re looking at the complex question of European security in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Joining us is Dr. [Guest Name], an expert on international relations and security in Eastern Europe. Dr. [Guest Name], thank you for being here.
**Guest:** Thank you for having me.
**Interviewer:** The war in Ukraine has drastically changed the European security landscape. As we approach a potential end to this conflict, what are some of the key concerns for European nations?
**Guest:** Absolutely. The war has shattered the post-Cold War order in Europe. While there’s hope for a ceasefire and eventual peace agreement, Russia will remain a significant security challenge for Europe for years to come, even if they withdraw from occupied territories in Ukraine. We must remember that Russia will continue to exert pressure on Europe through various means, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and military maneuvers, as highlighted by NATO’s stance on Ukraine’s security [[1](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm)].
**Interviewer:** So the challenge is multifaceted. Beyond the potential for direct conflict, there’s also the erosion of traditional security mechanisms like the OSCE and arms control treaties.
**Guest:** Precisely. These institutions, designed to foster dialog and cooperation, are now largely dysfunctional. Finding new ways to manage security risks and establish predictability in our relationship with Russia will be crucial, but it requires Russia to acknowledge its own interests are linked to European stability.
**Interviewer:** What about Ukraine itself? What kind of security arrangements would ensure lasting peace and stability for the country, while also aligning with European security interests?
**Guest:** This is perhaps the most complex question. Any peace settlement must be acceptable to the Ukrainian people. It needs to address their security concerns, potentially involving security guarantees from European partners. But it must also be sustainable and prevent future conflict. Ultimately, a solution must be found that recognizes Ukraine’s right to self-determination while addressing the legitimate security concerns of all parties involved.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. [Guest Name], for sharing your insights on this critical issue. This is clearly a situation that will require carefulDiplomacy and thoughtful long-term solutions from all parties involved.
**Guest:** Thank you for having me.