© Archyde.com. Standard Chartered expects Egypt to reach an agreement with the International Monetary before the end of the month
The loan will be in the range of 6 billion dollars and the market will feel disappointed if it is less than 5 billion dollars
A research note issued by Standard Chartered Bank expected that an agreement at the level of experts of the International Monetary Fund would be reached before the end of September, which would pave the way for obtaining a loan estimated at regarding $6 billion.
She added that the markets, since the beginning of the summer, had been expecting an agreement with the fund and some degree of exchange rate devaluation, which was reflected in the levels of the pound in the non-deliverable futures contracts.
She stated that in light of expectations that the value of the loan ranges between 5 and 10 billion dollars, a decrease in its value will lead the market to feel frustrated.
The memo noted that inflationary pressures are strongly present, and the bank maintained its inflation expectations during the fiscal year 2023, which began in July and ends in June 2023, to record an average of 11.6 percent, with a peak of 15 percent in the last quarter of this year, to return to The ones place in the second quarter of 2023.
He pointed out that the decline in international food prices was not fully reflected in domestic prices, as food inflation is still higher than 20%.
He stated that the rise in core inflation (which excludes volatile and administratively determined commodities) rose to 16.7% on an annual basis last August due to the impact of the exchange rate depreciation that began in March 2022.
The bank expected a further rise in the price once morest the pound in the range of 20%, to trade at the levels of the pound futures contracts for 9 months, and raised its expectations for the dollar exchange rate once morest the pound to 20.75 pounds to the dollar, compared to previous expectations that it would record 18.25 pounds by the end of 2022, to reach 21.75 pounds. Against previous expectations (18.78 pounds) by the end of 2023.
He attributed the reasons for the reduction to the fact that reaching a program with the International Monetary Fund and the Gulf’s injection of the investments it had pledged were not as quickly as expected in the beginning.
The price of the dollar at the Central Bank is currently regarding 19.47 pounds, an increase of regarding 23% from its value at the beginning of last March.
