2023-12-12 08:25:53
Standard Chartered Bank held a 2024 investment outlook briefing this followingnoon (12th). Fu Mingcai, senior vice president of the Financial Markets Division, believed that “China’s inflationary pressure has been resolved.” He predicted that China’s central bank interest rate meeting on the 14th this week, “There is no need, There is no pressure to raise interest rates.” In the second half of next year, the U.S. Federal Reserve will have a chance to start cutting interest rates, twice in total by a total of four points (100 basis points = 1 percentage point). In addition, Fu Mingcai believes that the interest rate difference between my country and the US dollar is very large, and there is an advantage to wait. If Europe and the United States cut interest rates in the second half of next year, the central bank will not need to follow up immediately.
Extended reading: Standard Chartered’s big banker sees the housing market “falling into a cooling-off period next year” and the economic signal will be green in the second half of the year
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that my country’s central bank will not raise interest rates this week, and the United States will cut interest rates twice next year by a total of 4 percentage points. Standard Chartered Silver.Picture/provided by Standard Chartered Silver
As for the U.S. dollar, Fu Mingcai said, “The strong U.S. dollar has ended, and the U.S. dollar index is at a high of 115.” The U.S. will not raise interest rates next year and may even have the opportunity to cut interest rates. The interest rate differentials of various currencies once morest the U.S. dollar have narrowed. Recently, because the yen has been too weak, the U.S. dollar can still maintain a high level. The Bank of Japan’s attitude is very ambiguous. It will be a key to have the opportunity to exit next year. , determines whether the dollar experiences another volatile correction.
The yen is expected to appreciate to a maximum of 130 per dollar next year
The yen is estimated to be between 130 and 140 yuan per US dollar in 2024, making it difficult to depreciate next year. But the key is how the Bank of Japan explains its monetary policy next week, which will be very important. If the super easing policy is announced, it will depreciate a bit. Standard Chartered’s forecast for the yen in the first quarter to the fourth quarter is 140, 140, 135 and 130.
Standard Chartered Bank’s followingnoon outlook conference predicts that central banks in Europe, the United States, and Asia will lag behind the second half of the year in interest rate cuts next year. The chances in the first half of the year are slim. The extent depends on two things. One is the speed of price index CPI decline; the other is the possibility of economic data accelerating interest rate cuts. . However, Fu Mingcai emphasized that the premise is that the central bank should respond immediately without delay, otherwise it will result in a “forced interest rate cut” that will be too fast and too large, which will be detrimental to capital market volatility.
Starting from the third quarter, there will be at least two rate cuts of 100 basis points in the United States.
Fu Mingcai believes that although prices in Europe and the United States have shown a “dramatic decline” recently, they are still above the long-term levels estimated by the central bank, and interest rates will still remain high. Inflation in the United States is nearly 3%. Can it return to 2%? Still key, European inflation is still above 5%. The U.S. balance sheet continues to shrink, and inflation has become passivated following falling from 8 to 9% to 4%. This is mainly because the CPI index of the service industry has not yet slowed down significantly. The relationship between lagged rents is the main key, but he predicts , rents are regarding to enter a cycle of rapid decline, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the third quarter. There will be at least two interest rate cuts, and we do not rule out more than two. However, the entire cycle of interest rate cuts will see the federal interest rate reach 4.5%, which is 100 basis points (1 percentage point) less than it is now, or even lower than 4.5%.
The biggest variable in 2024 is that there is room for interest rate cuts in mainland China’s real estate market next year
“The biggest variable in 2024 is mainland China,” Fu Mingcai said. It is difficult to determine whether it will get better or be as depressed as it is now. In the past month, Chinese officials have introduced many policies to revitalize the economy, especially real estate. The export data in the past two months have also improved to a certain extent. However, China’s domestic demand economy is dominated by domestic demand. If it is still sluggish, it will still be difficult to rely on exports to improve. 1.3 billion people do not consume. This has a negative impact on the export-oriented global supply chain including Taiwan, especially Consumer electronics is hard to help.
“The contribution of real estate to China’s economy is much greater than that of the automobile industry.” Although the outside world is optimistic regarding the development of China’s new energy vehicles and green economy, it is an important statement to boost China’s economy. Standard Chartered does not deny it, but it depends on new energy vehicles to turn China around. Mainland China’s economy is experiencing certain difficulties. In the past, Chinese consumers had high willingness and accumulated wealth quickly, part of which came from real estate, which accounted for a large part of household balance sheets. Once housing prices no longer remain what they were in previous years, it will have an impact on consumer willingness and confidence, dragging down economic recovery.
The current market interest rate in mainland China is less than 3%, regarding 2.2~2.4%, but the price index is -0.5%, and the real interest rate is around 270 basis points. Therefore, there is room for further interest rate cuts in mainland China in 2024, combined with fiscal and tax policies.
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Yahoo Finance special correspondent Ye Yiru: 22 years of experience in mainstream financial media. From the Web1.0 bubble in 2000 to the Meta Yuanverse Web3.0, he has witnessed the rise and fall of Taiwan’s large and small enterprise groups and has experienced five international financial crises. We believe that finance is life and is everywhere. No matter how difficult financial knowledge is, we should explain it in a simple way. Everyone, young and old, should manage money. If you don’t manage money, money will not care regarding you.
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