Spot gold trading strategy: U.S. bond yields continue to rise, gold prices test 1660 mark support
In the Asian session on Tuesday (October 11), spot gold fluctuated slightly and was currently trading around $1,664.4/oz. After the market was closed on Monday, U.S. bond yields continued to rise on Tuesday, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit a new high in a week and a half. To 4%, it is also close to the high of 4.019% since 2008 hit in September, and the US dollar index is also approaching a high of more than 20 years, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the hawkish speech of the Fed officials and the strong non-agricultural data have been initially digested by the market. The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and worries regarding the global economic recession have also provided safe-haven support for the gold price. The support near the 1660 mark is strong. Before the position, gold bulls still have a chance.
However, considering that the minutes of the Fed meeting will be released this week, it is more likely to be hawkish. If the price of gold breaks below the 1660 mark, it is necessary to beware of the possibility of accelerated decline in the price of gold. Of course, there is also some wait-and-see sentiment in the market before the release of US inflation data this week. The market expects the headline inflation rate in September to be 8.1%, down from 8.3% in August; the core inflation rate is expected to rise from 6.3% in August to 6.5%, which may prompt the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy to continue into next year, which is not good for gold prices.
There are few economic data in this trading day. It is necessary to pay attention to the speeches of the officials of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. On Monday, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Quatten announced the budget in advance, and the British bond yields rose sharply, which also once put pressure on the price of gold; Pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine.
4 hour level:After the shock rise, the MACD crossed the zero axis, the Bollinger Band opened, and the gold price ran down along the lower track of the Bollinger Band. It is currently testing the 38.2% retracement of the 1614-1729 rally at 1658.37, the 1660 mark, and the previous period. The support of multiple support levels such as the support level 1659.33, if it breaks the support near 1658.37, the price of gold may fall back to the recent low near 1614; in the short term, there are also certain supports near the 1650 mark, 1641.25 and 1626.59 respectively.
Since KDJ has issued a short-term oversold signal, if the gold price can hold the support near 1658.37, the bulls still have the opportunity to regain the rally; the initial resistance is near the 50% retracement level of 1671.90, and then the 1680 mark, the 38.2% retracement level. The resistance is near 1685.43, and the strong resistance is near the 1700 mark of the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands. If this position can be recovered, it will increase the bullish signal in the market outlook.
resistance:1671.90；1680.00；1685.43；1700.00；
support:1658.37；1650.00；1641.25；1626.59；
Short-term operation suggestions:Conservatives wait and see; activists are cautious and long on dips.
