2023-08-10 06:04:00
Spot gold trading strategy: a decisive battle against the US CPI data, the morale of the bulls is low
During the Asian session on Thursday (August 10), spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently trading around $1,918.21 per ounce. Investors are generally waiting for the U.S. CPI data for July to be released in the evening. Due to the recent continuous rise in oil prices, the market expects the U.S. The year-on-year growth rate will rise from 3% in June to 3.3%, and the core CPI growth rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8%, which means that the Fed will maintain a higher interest rate level for at least a long time, putting pressure on gold prices. The technical aspect shows that there is still a certain downside risk in the short-term gold price, and attention should be paid to the support near the 1900 mark.
In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. There are signs that the tension in the U.S. labor force has slowed down. This expectation slightly provides support for gold prices, and we need to beware of the possibility of gold prices bottoming out.
As the market generally expects the Fed to be close to the end of its rate hike cycle, this is still supporting gold prices in the medium to long term.
In addition, this trading day also needs to pay attention to the speeches of Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Atlanta Fed President Bostic.
Daily level: shocks and declines; MACD dead cross, KDJ dead cross, short-term moving averages and short positions, short-term gold prices still have further downside risks, initial support is around 1907.08 under the Bollinger Band, further support refers to the 1900 integer mark, 200-day moving average support Also around there, and then support near the June 29 low of 1892.85, a break below which would add a mid-term bearish signal.
Since late May, the price of gold has been running in the range of 1892-1987. At present, KDJ has also issued a short-term oversold signal. It is expected that the short-term gold price will fall below the support near the 200-day moving average of 1897.18. Beware of the possibility of a rebound in gold prices in the market outlook. The initial resistance above is currently around the low point of 1925.43 on August 4th, the resistance of the 5-day moving average is around 1930.52, the resistance of the 55-day moving average is around 1943.87, and the resistance of the low point of July 27 is also around this position. If this position can be regained, then Weaken the bearish signal in the market outlook.
Resistance: 1925.43; 1930.52; 1943.87; 1950.83;
Support: 1907.08; 1902.55; 1897.18; 1892.85;
Suggestions for short-term operations: Conservatives wait and see; radicals are cautious about shorting rallies, and cautiously shorting bargains.
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