According to projections by ARD and ZDF, the new alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the CDU follow. The Greens, the Left Party, the FDP and BVB/Free Voters remain below the five percent hurdle and are unlikely to be represented in the state parliament. Woidke could therefore continue to govern after eleven years in office.
Since the last election in 2019, he has led a coalition with the CDU and the Greens. They have little chance of being re-elected to the Brandenburg state parliament, as Green politician Marie Schäffer lost her direct mandate in the Potsdam I constituency, where she was defeated by SPD politician Manja Schüle. The Greens had hoped for the direct mandate primarily because it would have enabled them to enter parliament with their statewide election result even if they had missed the five percent hurdle.
- Die SPD is now at 30.7 percent according to ARD projections, the AfD at 29.5 percent.
- This is followed by the BSW with 13.3 percent, which is now well ahead of the CDU at 12.1 percent.
- Die Green come to 4.2 percent. The Left fail with 3.0 percent, the Free Voters with 2.6 percent.
- Die Voter turnout According to projections, the unemployment rate is between 73 and 74 percent, which is higher than ever since 1990. In 2019, it was 61.3 percent.
According to their second vote result, the SPD will have 30 to 32 seats in the state parliament (2019: 25), the AfD 29 to 31 (23). The BSW will therefore receive 12 to 14 seats, the CDU 12 (15). If the Greens win a direct mandate in a constituency, they would receive 5 seats (10) – the number is calculated according to the second vote result. However, there are no indications that the Greens will achieve this – nor the Left, BVB/Free Voters or FDP. According to projections, voter turnout is 73 to 74 percent, the highest since 1990. In 2019, it was 61.3 percent.
FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl congratulated the AfD on its “impressive” election success on Sunday evening. “The political reactions show that the system no longer has any issues, but is only pursuing the destructive goal of keeping the AfD away from the top spot. Despite intensive support from the media, which is also financed by AfD voters, this was only just achieved. The AfD’s performance should therefore be rated all the higher,” reacted the federal party chairman of the Freedom Party.
Tailwind for Scholz
After recent poor results in the European elections and the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD can now breathe a sigh of relief – also at the federal level. Chancellor Olaf Scholz can hope for a slight tailwind for the federal election in a year. For the other two traffic light parties, the Greens and the FDP, the Brandenburg figures are bitter.
Since reunification in 1990, the Social Democrats have consistently provided the Prime Minister in Brandenburg. During the election campaign, 62-year-old Woidke deliberately did not make major joint appearances with Chancellor Scholz – probably also because of the poor poll ratings of the Berlin traffic light coalition. Around 2.1 million people were called to vote – there are fewer eligible voters in the state than in Berlin.
Before the election, Woidke announced that he would only continue to hold government responsibility if the SPD became the strongest force – and he has now done that. However, forming a government is likely to be complicated. It is unclear whether the previous government partner, the Greens, will return to the state parliament – in which case a continuation of the red-black-green coalition would be possible. Woidke did not comment on his preferred partners before the election. The BSW could also be considered as a partner, but also BVB/Free Voters – if the latter win a direct mandate. The BSW had signaled during the election campaign that it did not want to participate in government at any price.
Woidke said: “We have made a comeback like never before in the history of our country.” He added: “Our goal from the beginning was to prevent our country from getting a big brown stamp.”
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann spoke of a “bitter defeat” after his party’s losses. Woidke had put everything on the line with his threat to resign – and won. “That’s what credibility looks like.”
Nobody wants to govern with AfD
Despite its good performance, the AfD has no prospect of participating in government: no other party wants to work with it. Party leader Tino Chrupalla said that the goal of “sending Woidke into retirement” had been missed. But the East German elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Thuringia were successful: “We won gold once and silver twice.” The AfD’s rise in strength has recently also sparked concerns abroad about a shift to the right in Germany, for example among partners in NATO and the EU.
A special feature in Brandenburg that does not exist in any other German state is the cap on the number of seats in the state parliament – there can be a maximum of 110. If the AfD wins more direct mandates in this election than it is entitled to based on the second vote share, experts say it could happen that the other parties do not get enough compensatory mandates due to the limit on state parliament seats.
If the AfD were to get more than a third of the seats, it would have a so-called blocking minority: it would have to agree to decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority. Constitutional court judges, for example, are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
The election campaign was dominated by a heated debate about limiting irregular migration, fuelled by the Islamist knife attack in Solingen which left three people dead. Brandenburg’s border with Poland is considered a migration hotspot nationwide, and many asylum seekers travel there despite stationary police checks.
Despite comparatively strong economic growth, low unemployment and the Tesla settlement, for example, there has recently been a lot of dissatisfaction among voters in Brandenburg, according to surveys. There was particular discontent with the Ukraine policy of the federal government, which is supported by the traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP, which played into the hands of the BSW. The Wagenknecht party rejects, among other things, economic sanctions against Russia and arms deliveries to Ukraine and is also opposed to the federal government’s planned stationing of extensive US weapons in Germany.
This article was last updated at 9:40 p.m.
