2023-05-23 13:59:00
The government’s goal of achieving US$ 5,000 million in the third edition of Export Incentive Program (PIE) got half way. Experts point out that several factors contributed to its poor performance, such as falling commodity pricesthe unattractive exchange rate for producers and the possibility of a devaluation in the future.
This represents a number significantly lower in comparison with the previous schemeswhich achieved retain 65% of the value of the soybean dollar 1 and 74% of the value of the soybean dollar 2. On this occasion, with data at the close of last Friday, the US$ 3,042 million under the agricultural dollar regime to $300. Of that amount, the Central Bank was able to retain US$700 million. “This means that every 100 dollars that entered the BCRA to 300 pesos might only retain US$23″, explained one of the analysts consulted by PERFIL.
Faced with this complicated economic scenario, the Government is already considering a fourth edition of the Export Incentive Program (PIE), which contemplates a differential exchange rate for agricultural liquidations, which contributes foreign currency almost like no other sector.
The program generated little more than half of the currencies that were expected; and although some suggest that there might be a second time for the dollar agro soybeans and corn, Roman Danteprofessor and researcher at the Austral University Agribusiness and Food Center, considers it important to reflect on what the market takes into account as a price variation factor.
$2,000 bill: how much value has it lost since its creation was announced?
The soybean dollar nor did it manage to make producers advance in sales, since returning to dollarization is complex. Stage It gets more complicated as the days go by.and the producers are paralyzed.
“Nor did it manage to make producers advance in salesdespite the fact that the prices in pesos that are obtained divided by the official exchange rate yield interesting prices above the 460 USD/tt“, he pointed Romano in a report.
For the teacher, what happens with the producers It is that they receive the pesos, but going back to dollarization is complex for them: “It can only be done in the chacarero account that is complicated, in fixed terms in Banco Nación, or in financial instruments which, although they are private, generate doubts in many producers”, he explains.
There is a long way to go to the finish line and there are only six wheels left
“The agricultural dollar regime at $300 has generated a liquidation of US$ 3,042 million until last Fridayof which the Banco Central might retain US$ 700 million. However, this number is lower than previous editions of the soybean dollar. It is important to highlight that, of the dollars that entered, the BCRA might only withhold $23 for every $100”, he warned PROFILE Salvador Vitellihead of research en Romano Group.
“Although the number of settlements is striking, what is relevant is how many genuine dollars the BCRA has left, which paid $557 for each dollar. If the goal of US$ 5,000 million set by the Government is considered, an average of US$ 326 million should be liquidating in the six wheels that remain in May to achieve it,” added Vitelli.
“This is quite a high number for what this scheme was.that only this value was only exceeded on the second day of its entry into force, in which US$ 574 million were settled, but from then on, all were below US$200 millionso it is most likely that the goal set by the Economy will not be reached ”, warned the economist.
“According to data from The Stock Exchange, close to six million tons have been liquidated, but keep in mind that one million tons are not counted within the soybean dollar program, since they are purchase and sale contracts without price fixing. This means that we might be talking regarding 5 million tons until Friday”, commented for his part David Miazzochief economist of the Agricultural Foundation for the Development of Argentina (FADA).
He added: “In dollar terms, as of Friday, this would equate to regarding $3 billion. When the soybean dollar regime began, the oilseed price was close to US$ 600Therefore, the goal set by the Government was regarding 10 million liquid tons. Nowadays, it can be said that we are halfway to the goal that had been set. It is possible that this week something else will be added, but it should not be that significant.
The possibility of a soybean dollar 4
For the analysts consulted, It is very probable that the Government is already contemplating a fourth edition of the programAlthough Vitelli pointed out that the market does not contemplate this possibility, at least for nowa, since the quotes are not marking it.
All the details of how the soybean dollar 3 will work
“The soybean position as of June closed at US$388, while the soybean now in dollars is basically at $333. This differential is basically because the market does not consider that the soybean dollar is not going to expand and that ends on May 31 and that will then return to the official values of US$ 233. So for now in the market does not take for granted“, he pointed.
Miazzo, for his part, commented that it is probable that there will be a soybean dollar 4, maybe in august or septembersince the Government has taken three measures in this regard.
LR
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