2024-02-13 19:20:34
Seoul-
The Lunar New Year is officially here. If in the past year, South Korea’s diplomatic focus was on strengthening cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan, then in the new year, improving the all-round cooling of South Korea-China relations may account for a large proportion. South Korea has recently released a signal to ease relations with China, and both countries agree on the importance of developing friendly relations.
However, experts on South Korea-China relations interviewed by Voice of America believe that South Korea and China are intertwined with many issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue, Taiwan, economy, and people-to-people sentiments, involving the United States and other interested parties, and affecting the whole body. Improving relations may Not an easy task.
South Korea-China relations are getting colder in all aspects, from private to official
As the pattern of confrontation between global political camps deepens, relations between South Korea and China, which are at the forefront of geopolitical conflicts, have become colder in all aspects, from private to official.
First of all, people-to-people exchanges between South Korea and China have decreased. According to data from the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism of South Korea and the Korea Tourism Organization, the number of Chinese tourists visiting South Korea during this year’s Chinese New Year holiday (February 10-17) is expected to be between 80,000 and 85,000, which is higher than the number of Chinese tourists visiting South Korea during the Spring Festival in 2019 (before the epidemic). February 4-10) decreased by more than 20%. At the same time, Korean tourists who went to China during the holidays only accounted for regarding 7% of the total outbound tourists, far lower than Southeast Asia (56%) and Japan (26%), which are also close destinations.
Communication between the two governments is also inconsistent. The first phone call between South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Dui-yeol and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi came nearly a month following the former took office. Judging from the news materials released by the two countries, although both sides have expressed the importance they attach to bilateral relations, they have different opinions on specific demands.
Wang Yi “hopes that South Korea will pursue a positive, objective and friendly policy towards China, adhere to the one-China principle”, “jointly maintain the stability and smoothness of the production and supply chain, and resist the politicization, pan-security and instrumentalization of economic issues”. South Korea’s news materials did not mention the Taiwan issue. On economic issues, they only stated that both sides emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable supply chain and agreed to deepen trade and investment between the two countries.
Zhao Duiyeol called on China to “play a constructive role” on the Korean Peninsula issue and provide assistance to prevent North Korean defectors from being forcibly repatriated and go where they want to go. But Wang Yi only said that “the current tension on the peninsula is due to reasons. We hope that all parties will remain calm and restrained and will not take words or actions that will aggravate tensions.”
North Korean nuclear issue, Taiwan Strait, economy China has doubts regarding South Korea on many matters
Experts believe that this stalemate shows China’s doubts and concerns regarding South Korea, which takes cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan as the tone of its foreign policy, on important issues such as security and economy.
From the perspective of security issues, Zheng Zaixing, director of the China Studies Center of the Sejong Institute, told VOA during the phone call, “South Korea wants to seek to improve relations with China on the basis of security cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. It also attended the Camp David talks last year and made “We have made a series of moves”, but China’s view on this issue is that “if South Korea continues to take this approach, it will be difficult for South Korea-China relations to improve.”
Among security affairs, the North Korean nuclear issue and the Taiwan issue are undoubtedly top priorities. Moon Heung-ho, honorary professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University, told reporters during the call that in the process of restoring bilateral relations between China and South Korea, the biggest problem is the relationship between North and South (South Korea). He believes that China and South Korea have different analyzes of the root causes of the North Korean nuclear issue. “In China’s view, the cause of instability on the Korean Peninsula is that South Korea, the United States, and Japan threaten North Korea militarily, with the United States as the main force and South Korea and Japan as assistance.”
On the Taiwan issue, Wen Xinghao said, “China believes that the South Korean government has mentioned the Taiwan issue too many times. China is most worried regarding the internationalization of the Taiwan issue.”
In fact, from the end of the Moon Jae-in administration to the present, South Korea, the United States, and Japan have repeatedly mentioned the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait on important diplomatic occasions. At the end of last year, the national security chiefs of the three countries also reached an agreement on maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait.
In the economic field, experts believe that South Korea’s participation in the reorganization of supply chains in the United States has caused dissatisfaction in China. Xu Yun, a professor at Sogang University International Graduate School, pointed out in an email to VOA that following the Yin Xiyue administration took office, it “actively participated in multiple consultation mechanisms initiated by the United States, such as the Chip Alliance, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, etc., and the Chinese government has a worried view of this “.
Xu Yun also said, “China holds a negative view on the current phenomenon of politicization and securitization of economic issues. China hopes to establish deep ties with South Korea, but this phenomenon is not limited to South Korea, but is a global trend. . In the next 30 years, economy and security will be deeply connected, and the world will show a trend of decentralization and camp formation.”
South Korea releases friendly signal, but there are many obstacles to improving relations
Faced with the deepening estrangement between the two countries, the South Korean government has recently released signals to ease relations.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue said in a TV talk show before the Lunar New Year that “the Republic of Korea and China have no difference in the basic tone of governance and the tone of foreign relations, and there is no problem in South Korea-China trade relations.”
However, experts believe that South Korea-China relations face major and sensitive political issues and are constrained by other interested parties such as the United States.
Zheng Zaixing, director of the China Studies Center of the Sejong Institute, said that Yin Xiyue’s statement was just diplomatic rhetoric, and the problems encountered in South Korea-China relations are difficult to solve easily. “The cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan not only covers the North Korean issue, but also involves sensitive matters such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. From China’s perspective, South Korea’s attitude is vague. It does one thing and then comes to say that it wants cooperation. This is unacceptable. “.
Zheng Zaixing pointed out that the problem is that if China asks South Korea to change its position on Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, “then can South Korea do it? This requires South Korea to tell the United States that we must turn for China. So it is not that simple. The problem”.
Moon Heung-ho, honorary professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University, believes that South Korea-China relations can return to 70%-80% of their previous levels, but this depends on U.S.-China relations and the U.S. attitude on the Taiwan issue.
He said, “When China looks at the Korean Peninsula issue, it looks at Seoul and Pyongyang through Washington; the United States does the same and will comprehensively consider factors such as U.S.-China and U.S.-Japan relations. At present, the military relationship between the United States and China has eased, so China “Relevant policies on the Korean Peninsula have also begun to change.” However, “When China looks at the North Korea issue, its biggest concern is Taiwan. If the United States does not make concessions on the Taiwan issue, China will not make concessions on the North Korea issue.”
In the economic field, there are also deep-seated problems such as the changes in the status of the two countries in the industrial chain.
Pyo Na-ri, an associate professor at the Institute of Diplomacy and Security at the National Foreign Service of South Korea, pointed out in an email to VOA, “China’s industrial structure, which once played the role of the ‘world’s factory,’ has completely changed, and many changes have also taken place in investment, trade, etc. Recently. South Korea has a trade deficit with China for the first time, which is a very big change for South Korea, but China, which has become a surplus country, will not be without worries.” “After the establishment of diplomatic relations, South Korea and China quickly developed friendly relations based on economic cooperation, (Economy Cooperation) is a diplomatic driving force, so the two countries must work hard to find new drivers of development in the future.”
Zheng Zaixing’s view is even more pessimistic. He believes that South Korea has almost no economic or technological advantages. “What China wants is only part of the semiconductor industry.” These are the root of the problem. Ignoring these problems and seeking to improve relations is just South Korea’s unilateral idea.
Finally, the bad feelings among the people cannot be ignored. Pyo Na-ri pointed out, “More than 90% of Koreans have a negative view of China. South Korea is a liberal democratic country. No matter how the government promotes cooperation and friendship, it will be difficult to implement it if the people do not support it.” Especially following the THAAD incident, China claimed that it was a U.S. strategy, but actual retaliatory measures such as the Korean restriction order were concentrated on South Korea, which greatly weakened South Koreans’ trust in China. She believes that if Xi Jinping can visit South Korea, it will hopefully be an opportunity to eliminate mutual misunderstandings and doubts.
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